Extreme Drought Continues
Saturday, November 7, 2026 · 10:44 AM
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Lyrics
Chilly this weekend. Widespread frost and a few spots with freezing temperatures tonight. Dry the next few days. Rain chances return Wednesday night. While recent rains have helped, extreme drought continues for much of Middle Tennessee. Clouds scoured out in the mid-morning sky Clear blue heavens where the old winds die Temperatures top out only in the fifties Middle Tennessee frozen under silent pity The sun shines bright but the air grows thin Fall is here, baby, let the dark begin Cover up the green before the midnight shadow falls Morning lows creeping down through the hollow halls Cooler spots will drop when the darkness breathes Cold black frost on the garden leaves The sky is clear but the soil is bleeding The cold comes down while the earth is grieving No escape from the freeze tonight Extreme drought continues Sunday morning opens with a bitter bite Widespread frost gleaming in the pale light Semi-zonal flow won't save the land A temporary warmth across the dust and sand Ahead of the next storm rolling out of sight We wait for the dark in the freezing night The sky is clear but the soil is bleeding The cold comes down while the earth is grieving No escape from the freeze tonight Extreme drought continues Extreme drought continues Extreme drought continues Protect your sensitive vegetation Extreme drought continues
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1039 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
- Chilly this weekend.
Widespread frost and a few spots with freezing temperatures tonight.
- Dry the next few days.
Rain chances return Wednesday night.
- While recent rains have helped, extreme drought continues for much of Middle TN.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1039 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
Clouds and low level moisture left over from yesterday's frontal passage have finally scoured out leaving clear skies and cool temperatures across all of Middle TN. Under all this sun, a spot or two might reach 60 this afternoon, but almost everyone will only top out in the 50s.
Fall is here, baby!
More of the same is expected tomorrow, but we'll start off noticeably cooler than we did this morning.
Expect widespread frost for everyone and I would argue several of our normally cooler spots will see morning lows in the upper 20s.
If you didn't protect sensitive outdoor vegetation last night, you'll definitely want to tonight.
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1039 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026
As we get into the start of next week, we will remain dry.
However, under semi-zonal flow aloft, afternoon highs will climb a degree or two above normal values as early as Monday and even another degree or two warmer on Tuesday.
Per usual, a warmup like this is ahead of our next potential weather maker.
Here's the catch: models aren't in great agreement on what that next weather maker looks like.
The most recent NBM does jump PoPs starting Wednesday evening (40-50% up from 20%), but the GFS and Euro that make up a large portion of the NBM look very different.
The GFS shows a much more amplified upper level trough over the mid-Mississippi Valley bringing showers and maybe even a few storms to the mid-state Wednesday night through Thursday as surface low pressure is developed much closer to home.
The 00Z Euro is starkly different with a much less amplified upper trough and a surface low up in Ohio.
While the PoPs may be the same, those outcomes would look totally different.
In the end, look for increased rain chances mid-week and another shot of cooler air to arrive in time for next weekend -- maybe even widespread 20s for morning lows on Saturday.