Sheltered in the Valley
Friday, November 6, 2026 · 10:36 PM
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Chilly this weekend. Widespread frost and freezing temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night. Dry the next several days. Only low rain chances late next week. While recent rains have helped, extreme drought continues for much of Middle Tennessee. The cold front pushed through early! Cooler air and north breezes! Patchy drizzle in the dark! The clearing line approaches from Kentucky tonight! Sluggish clouds hold the line, keeping temperatures up! Sprawling surface high pressure parked over the state! By tomorrow the sun shines on highs in the fifties! Then radiation cooling takes complete control! LOW THIRTIES! LOW THIRTIES! LOW THIRTIES! CRASHING IN THE NIGHT! The north wind drops, the cloud edge clears! Extreme drought suffocates our fears! The air turns numb, the frost will freeze! Sheltered in the valley! EASTERN STATES TROFFING PATTERN! SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE! FOG ON THE RIVERS! FROST ON THE GROUND! MOVE! TWENTY DEGREES! TWENTY DEGREES! TWENTY DEGREES! ON THE PLATEAU! Sheltered in the valley! Low rain chances late next week! Extreme drought continues! Freeze! Freeze! Freeze!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1033 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
- Chilly this weekend.
Widespread frost and freezing temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night.
- Dry the next several days.
Only low rain chances late next week.
- While recent rains have helped, extreme drought continues for much of Middle TN.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1020 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
A reinforcing cold front moved through the area early Friday.
In the wake of this front we have experienced cooler air, cloudy skies, north breezes, and patchy drizzle.
The northern edge of clouds (clearing line) was approaching from KY late this Friday evening.
If the trend continues, skies will clear out from north to south in the early morning hours of Saturday.
The sluggish clouds and north breezes will keep temps up a little, so we are not expecting freezing conditions for Saturday morning.
There will be some patchy frost in areas that clear out, especially the northwest.
Saturday will be a cool but mainly sunny autumn day, with highs in the 50s.
Saturday night will be clear to partly cloudy with light winds.
This will allow temps to crash into the low 30s, with some 20s Plateau and sheltered valleys.
Along with widespread frost, there will be areas of fog, especially near lakes and rivers.
More of the same is expected for Sunday and Sunday night as sprawling surface high pressure remains parked over the area.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1020 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026
Dry conditions will stay with us early next week.
Nights will continue to be quite chilly while daytimes become mild.
Models show a troughing pattern developing across the eastern states mid to late week.
This will bring some weak disturbances our way with low rain chances mid to late week, followed by a reinforcing shot of chilly air by next weekend.