Long Way To Recover
Thursday, November 5, 2026 · 5:16 PM
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Cooler temperatures this weekend. Overnight lows in the upper twenties and low thirties are expected Saturday and Sunday nights. Dry conditions return for the foreseeable starting today. While recent rains will put a pause on worsening drought conditions, extreme drought continues across a majority of Middle Tennessee. Eastern Williamson County got four point three inches. Eastern Sumner County got four point one. Northwest Dickson County got two point six. And then there is northern Wayne and south-central Overton. Barely zero point two five inches. Why do I bring these up? Because that is all the rain we are going to get. Starting today, at least seven more days. Almost rain-free across Middle Tennessee. Just a passing impulse tomorrow afternoon. A hundredth of an inch on the Upper Cumberland. A minor tickle that will not make a difference. Twenty-four to thirty-six hours ago, the sky opened up! It paused the drought, but it did not save us! The moisture is gone, the column is bone dry! Seven days of nothing! Seven days of dust! Sumner got four point one, Williamson got four point three! Wayne County got nothing but a dry memory! Seven rain-free days hovering above, It is a long way to recover! BARELY ZERO POINT TWO FIVE! EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES! A HUNDREDTH ON THE CUMBERLAND DOES NOT SAVE US! SEVEN DAYS OF RAIN-FREE DUST! WE ARE BURNING UP! WE ARE BURNING UP! Extreme drought... Across a majority of Middle Tennessee. It is a long way to recover.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 511 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
- Cooler temperatures this weekend.
Overnight lows in the upper 20s and low 30s are expected Saturday and Sunday nights.
- Dry conditions return for the foreseeable starting today.
- While recent rains will put a pause on worsening drought conditions, extreme drought continues across a majority of Middle TN.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1030 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
These are some of the MRMS radar estimated rainfall totals from Tuesday night and Wednesday:
Eastern Williamson County: 4.3 inches Eastern Sumner County: 4.1 inches Northwest Dickson County: 2.6 inches
And then there's northern Wayne county and south-central Overton Counties: barely 0.25 inches.
Why do I bring these up? That's all the rain we're going to get for the foreseeable future.
Again.
Today starts at least 7 more days of *almost* rain-free conditions across Middle TN. I say almost because a passing impulse tomorrow afternoon could give a trace or a hundredth to a few spots on the Upper Cumberland.
While this tickle of rain won't make a difference, the rain we got 24-36 hours ago will help drought conditions in the short-term (or least pause them).
In the end, we've got a long way to go to recover from the current extreme conditions across a large portion of the area.
LONG TERM
(Friday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1030 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026
The second part of this might be a little better news for some.
The warmer temperatures of late summer and early fall might finally be gone for a while.
Afternoon highs and morning lows will be at or below seasonal norms starting today.
In fact, by Saturday morning, several spots will see morning lows in the upper 20s!
That means widespread frost and even localized freeze conditions during the morning hours through at least Tuesday morning.
Keep this in mind if you have sensitive vegetation still outdoors.