Upper 20s
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 11:01 PM
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Lyrics
Locally dense fog tonight into early morning. Cooler temperatures this weekend. Overnight lows in the thirties are expected along with freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday nights. Dry weather persists into next week with a gradual warming. Light boundary layer winds! Soaked ground! Cold advection moving in! Eleven P.M.! Ground is soaked— Light boundary winds— Advecting dry air across the region! Dense fog advisory active until eight A.M.! Visibility zero— Spreading south of Interstate forty! Three A.M. dewpoint convergence! Longwave troff encompassing eastern United States— Upper low moving south at five hundred millibars! Spilling through the Mississippi Valley by Friday night! Radiational cooling at two A.M.! National Blend of Models dropping temperatures fast! Thirty-eight— Thirty-four— Cumberland Valley plunging down! CANADIAN AIR MASS OVERTAKES! STABLE AND COOL! PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION! FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON! The surface high settles over the valley! Drier air snapping the moisture clean off! First freeze of the season taking hold! Dropping all the way to upper 20s! Upper 20s! Rain-free! Air mass modification! Frozen solid!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1100 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
- Locally dense fog tonight into early morning.
- Cooler temperatures this weekend.
Overnight lows in the 30s are expected along with freezing temperatures Saturday and Sunday nights.
- Dry weather persists into next week with a gradual warming.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1100 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
A cold front moved through Middle Tennessee today and a secondary front is moving through currently which is advecting drier air into the area.
However, boundary layer winds are light and the ground is soaked in most places.
With overnight cooling, locally dense fog is forecast into early Thursday morning, especially in more fog-prone valleys.
A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 8 AM and may need to expand westward a few counties south of I-40.
The synoptic picture primarily involves a longwave trough encompassing the central and eastern CONUS Thursday.
This will coincide with an expansive surface high spilling down through the Mississippi Valley into Friday with a large upper-low moving south from the Great Lakes.
These features will bring more notable cold advection into the region with very dry continental air.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1100 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
The aforementioned Canadian air mass will overtake the region this weekend with the surface high settling near the Mid Mississippi Valley.
We'll be very cool and stable this weekend as a result.
Radiational cooling at night will promote our first widespread frost and freeze of the season with lows well into the 30s.
Some locations in the Cumberland Valley could reach the upper 20s per latest NBM data.
Plan to protect any sensitive vegetation this weekend.
Medium-range guidance depicts a fairly complex split flow pattern next week, but nothing in the way of systems aloft or meaningful moisture return across the Mid South.
We'll should get a gradual air mass modification into mid-week that will support warming temperatures, though we'll remain rain-free through the forecast period.