40 Knots Of Shear
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 5:32 PM
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Lyrics
Lingering showers across the Cumberland Plateau this evening. No severe weather or flooding expected. Patchy dense fog tonight into early Thursday morning. Dry and gradually cooler conditions starting through the weekend. Overnight lows in the thirties by Saturday. Upper level troff! Upper Midwest low! Push the cold front east! Watch the radar grow! Nashville metro line! Front is moving through! Saturated column! Sky turning blue! Five hundred joules per kilogram! Tall thin energy profile! Zero point five zero inches rate! Pushing hard across the mile! CUT THE BOUNDARY CLEAN! CRASH THE PROFILE DOWN! SIX P.M. IS HERE! 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR! Dew points in the sixties! Dropping to the forties fast! Cumberland receives rain! Lingering cells have passed! Dry air takes control! Heights begin to rise! Cooler weekend comes! Under clearing skies! FORTY KNOTS! ZERO POINT FIVE ZERO! TROFF MOVES EAST! FRONT EXITS NOW! CUT THE BOUNDARY CLEAN! CRASH THE PROFILE DOWN! SIX P.M. IS HERE! 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR! Six P.M. front clears! Dew points drop! Boundary pushed away! 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 525 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
- Lingering showers across the Cumberland Plateau this evening.
No severe weather or flooding expected.
- Patchy dense fog tonight into early Thursday morning.
- Dry and gradually cooler conditions starting through the weekend.
Overnight lows in the 30s by Saturday.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
An upper level trough and surface low are sitting over the Upper Midwest helping to push a cold front through Middle TN. Right now the front is over the Nashville metro area and will continue to work to the east as we head into the afternoon.
We have seen some CAPE up to 500 j/kg build in ahead of the front with sounding profiles saturated showing mainly tall and thin CAPE.
This isn't great for strong thunderstorms but bulk shear is 40+ knots.
Can't rule out gusty winds with any stronger cells that develop but that risk does look very low.
Heavy rain will be the bigger threat with those CAPE profile and we could see brief rain rates of 0.50"+ with the frontal passage.
Overall the flooding risk is low but given the wet ground some localized flooding can't be ruled out.
The front should push east of Middle TN by 6 PM this evening with dry conditions setting in. Current dew points are in the 60s and we will see them gradually drop behind the front dropping into the 40s Thursday morning.
Lows tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
We will see slight height rises on Thursday with dry and quiet conditions and highs topping out in the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
A short wave trough will track out of the Rockies on Friday and move over Middle TN. This trough will loose its moisture by the time it gets here keeping things dry.
Highs Friday will be a bit cooler in the low to mid 60s.
The big impact from the trough will be the cold air that builds in behind it. We are going to see a cool weekend with highs only in the mid to upper 50s.
Clear and cold conditions set in Saturday with lows in the low to mid 30s, some areas over the Plateau could drop into the upper 20s.
Troughing will remain in place for the start of next week and that will keep things cool.
Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s with lows in the 30s.
No precip chances for the extended period.