Tall and Thin
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 11:32 AM
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A cold front will bring a low severe weather threat this afternoon, primarily on the Cumberland Plateau. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main hazard. Dry and gradually cooler conditions starting Thursday through the weekend. Overnight lows in the thirties by Saturday. the upper level troff moves through the metro area dew points sitting high in the sixties a saturated column hanging over middle tennessee five hundred joules of energy stretched out so fine sounding profiles rising line by line rain rates half an inch an hour on the sodden street the surface boundary preparing to retreat forty knots of bulk shear pulling at the cloud tops and the dew points start to collapse falling into the forties by thursday morning the front pushes east past six P.M. saturated column with nowhere left to hide forty knots of bulk shear on the eastern side watching every profile stretch tall and thin and feeling the cold air win BY SATURDAY NIGHT WE DROP INTO THE THIRTIES UPPER TWENTIES ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU DRIED OUT AND STRIPPED CLEAN NO MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND THE TROFF THE COLD AIR TAKES OVER EVERYTHING highs only in the fifties lows in the thirties nothing left to fall
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1132 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
- A cold front will bring a low severe weather threat this afternoon, primarily on the Cumberland Plateau.
Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main hazard.
- Dry and gradually cooler conditions starting Thursday through the weekend.
Overnight lows in the 30s by Saturday.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
An upper level trough and surface low are sitting over the Upper Midwest helping to push a cold front through Middle TN. Right now the front is over the Nashville metro area and will continue to work to the east as we head into the afternoon.
We have seen some CAPE up to 500 j/kg build in ahead of the front with sounding profiles saturated showing mainly tall and thin CAPE.
This isn't great for strong thunderstorms but bulk shear is 40+ knots.
Can't rule out gusty winds with any stronger cells that develop but that risk does look very low.
Heavy rain will be the bigger threat with those CAPE profile and we could see brief rain rates of 0.50"+ with the frontal passage.
Overall the flooding risk is low but given the wet ground some localized flooding can't be ruled out.
The front should push east of Middle TN by 6 PM this evening with dry conditions setting in. Current dew points are in the 60s and we will see them gradually drop behind the front dropping into the 40s Thursday morning.
Lows tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
We will see slight height rises on Thursday with dry and quiet conditions and highs topping out in the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
A short wave trough will track out of the Rockies on Friday and move over Middle TN. This trough will loose its moisture by the time it gets here keeping things dry.
Highs Friday will be a bit cooler in the low to mid 60s.
The big impact from the trough will be the cold air that builds in behind it. We are going to see a cool weekend with highs only in the mid to upper 50s.
Clear and cold conditions set in Saturday with lows in the low to mid 30s, some areas over the Plateau could drop into the upper 20s.
Troughing will remain in place for the start of next week and that will keep things cool.
Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s with lows in the 30s.
No precip chances for the extended period.