Low Severe Threat
Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 11:13 AM
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A cold front will bring a low severe weather threat this afternoon, primarily on the Cumberland Plateau. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main hazard. Dry and gradually cooler conditions starting Thursday through the weekend. Overnight lows in the thirties by Saturday. Upper Midwest pushing down a big troff You think you can handle this? Don't turn it off Right over Nashville metro, taking its time Cruising on through like a party in its prime Current dew points hanging in the sixties tonight Saturated sounding profiles feeling just right I walk in the room, the bar starts to swing Let's see what kind of trouble this front's gonna bring! Tall and thin cape building right ahead Slicing through the middle of the watershed Rain rates of zero point five zero per hour Feel the rush, feel the swagger and the power! Oh, step inside where the atmosphere's hot! Five hundred joules is all that I got! With forty plus knots running wild and free You know this front was made for you and me! Whoa-oh! Bring on the rain tonight! Whoa-oh! We're gonna burn so bright! Baby, it's a low severe threat! Pushing past the Plateau by six P.M. Leaving all the rest behind, we don't care about them Dew points gonna drop to the forties by dawn Lows in the fifties before the clouds are gone Smirking at the radar, knowing what I know Cold air's rolling in for a killer weekend show! Tall and thin cape building right ahead Slicing through the middle of the watershed Rain rates of zero point five zero per hour Feel the rush, feel the swagger and the power! Oh, step inside where the atmosphere's hot! Five hundred joules is all that I got! With forty plus knots running wild and free You know this front was made for you and me! Whoa-oh! Bring on the rain tonight! Whoa-oh! We're gonna burn so bright! Baby, it's a low severe threat! Yeah, by Thursday morning we're down to the mid-forties, baby! Highs topping out in the upper sixties, effortlessly cool! Party's moving east, but the night is young! Yeah! That's how we do it!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
- A cold front will bring a low severe weather threat this afternoon, primarily on the Cumberland Plateau.
Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main hazard.
- Dry and gradually cooler conditions starting Thursday through the weekend.
Overnight lows in the 30s by Saturday.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
An upper level trough and surface low are sitting over the Upper Midwest helping to push a cold front through Middle TN. Right now the front is over the Nashville metro area and will continue to work to the east as we head into the afternoon.
We have seen some CAPE up to 500 j/kg build in ahead of the front with sounding profiles saturated showing mainly tall and thin CAPE.
This isn't great for strong thunderstorms but bulk shear is 40+ knots.
Can't rule out gusty winds with any stronger cells that develop but that risk does look very low.
Heavy rain will be the bigger threat with those CAPE profile and we could see brief rain rates of 0.50"+ with the frontal passage.
Overall the flooding risk is low but given the wet ground some localized flooding can't be ruled out.
The front should push east of Middle TN by 6 PM this evening with dry conditions setting in. Current dew points are in the 60s and we will see them gradually drop behind the front dropping into the 40s Thursday morning.
Lows tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s.
We will see slight height rises on Thursday with dry and quiet conditions and highs topping out in the mid to upper 60s.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1112 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026
A short wave trough will track out of the Rockies on Friday and move over Middle TN. This trough will loose its moisture by the time it gets here keeping things dry.
Highs Friday will be a bit cooler in the low to mid 60s.
The big impact from the trough will be the cold air that builds in behind it. We are going to see a cool weekend with highs only in the mid to upper 50s.
Clear and cold conditions set in Saturday with lows in the low to mid 30s, some areas over the Plateau could drop into the upper 20s.
Troughing will remain in place for the start of next week and that will keep things cool.
Highs will remain in the low to mid 60s with lows in the 30s.
No precip chances for the extended period.