Sheared at the Top

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- A cold front will be moving through Middle TN today.

There is a low risk (10-20%) of flash flooding, especially for areas along and west of I-65.

- A low severe weather threat continues this afternoon, primarily on the Cumberland Plateau.

Damaging winds are the main hazard.

- Mostly dry and gradually cooler conditions starting Thursday through the weekend.

Overnight lows in the 30s by Saturday.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1003 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A cold front draped across the Lower MS River Valley is progressing across TN this evening.

So far, the nearest lightning has been in Jackson, MS, which is essentially the northern extent of any meaningful instability.

Tonight's 00Z soundings revealed a whopping 9 J/kg of SBCAPE for Nashville, which will really put a damper on our thunder potential overnight.

Looking upstream, the front has made very little forward progress through west Tennessee in the last several hours.

Individual storm motions moving from southwest to northeast combined with a slow-moving N/S frontal boundary lead us to a primary concern of training storms producing localized flash flooding.

The 00Z flight also revealed a PWAT of 1.5 inches, which is well above the 90th percentile for this time of year.

This will make for very efficient rainfall producers during the frontal passage overnight, even in the absence of lightning and/or instability.

Digging a little more into the parameter space, this is also a very well sheared environment.

Without any instability to tap into, shallow convection gets sheared off at the top before it has a chance to grow upscale.

Even so, heavy rainfall can still come from shallow convection and will be our primary concern overnight.

Due to the slow progression of the surface boundary, convection will still be in the area by sunrise.

Forecast surface analysis from WPC places the front itself right over Nashville at 18Z/12PM Wednesday.

This will continue our heavy rainfall threat well into the day on Wednesday.

Hi res probabilities for >2" of total rainfall are lit up to 60-80% just west of the I-65 corridor between 6AM and 2PM on Wednesday.

There will also be a very narrow window of opportunity in the mid morning and early afternoon for any lingering storms to tap into the slightly more favorable daytime ingredients and produce a few rogue damaging wind gusts.

Given such a well sheared environment, the tornado threat is extremely low but not zero.

However, this is a fairly low confidence forecast of an already low-end severe weather threat.

CAMs have showers and storms clearing the Cumberland Plateau by about 6PM Wednesday.

Overnight Wednesday into Thursday, cooler and dry conditions slowly move in. This is a Pacific airmass, so temperatures aren't expected to take a crazy dip behind the front.

However, the trend is slowly but surely cooler starting Thursday with highs around 70 degrees.

As the surface high slides over Middle TN, the combination of calm winds and abundant moisture on the ground will promote patchy fog development across the area Thursday and Friday mornings.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1003 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The long term forecast looks rather benign, aside from chilly mornings near freezing.

Residual CAA will continue to cool temperatures during the day through the weekend, bottoming out around 60 degrees Sunday afternoon.

After that, a more dominant ridging pattern begins to emerge and afternoon temperatures begin a very slow climb back upwards.

However, large scale high pressure will be sitting over the Lower MS River Valley this weekend into early next week, which will promote efficient radiational cooling overnight.

This will result in temperatures in the low to mid 30s starting Saturday and continuing through at least Tuesday morning.

The coldest morning looks to be Monday with several locations on the Plateau reading in the upper 20s.