Shrink To Near Zero
Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 10:26 PM
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Lyrics
Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the upcoming week. No rain is expected through Friday night, but the weather pattern will hopefully begin to shift next weekend. Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term. The surface ridge trailing along the Appalachians! High pressure parked over Middle Tennessee! South winds shift across the dried-out ground Relative humidity is crashing down Radiation fog in the quiet midnight air Drought conditions worsening everywhere The fuels are dry and ready to burn No shift in the pattern, nowhere to turn NEAR ZERO! NEAR ZERO! NEAR ZERO! THE DEW POINT DROPS! High pressure locked overhead and below Larger than normal diurnal spread to show The land bleeds quiet while the fires grow Dew point depressions shrink to near zero LIGHT WINDS PREVENT THE FLAMES FROM RUSHING! STAGNANT AIR! HIGH PRESSURE CRUSHING! NO RAIN UNTIL THE WEEKEND BREAKS! FEEL HOW MUCH THE DRY EARTH ACHES! NEAR ZERO! NEAR ZERO! NEAR ZERO! SHRINK TO NEAR ZERO! Shrink to near zero! Shrink to near zero! The air turns still! No rain for days!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
- Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the the upcoming week.
- No rain is expected through Friday night, but the weather pattern will hopefully begin to shift next weekend.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
The surface ridge that has been parked to the north and west of Middle Tennessee has finally come through and now trails along the Appalachians.
Surface winds have shifted to the south and dew points have started to come up. It appears that radiation fog may be a little more widespread overnight as dew point depressions shrink to near zero in many spots.
But we still don't expect any meaningful pattern shift in coming days as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature across the region both at the surface and aloft.
Afternoon RH values will continue to be quite low for the foreseeable future, so there is obviously an increased fire risk as available fuels continue to dry out.
However, light winds will also prevent the fire risk from being further elevated.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Temperatures throughout the upcoming week will warm very gradually.
We'll still enjoy relatively cool nights and warm afternoons for most of the week, with larger-than-normal diurnal spreads.
However, the persistent high pressure will finally start to break down by week's end, and confidence is increasing that a weather-producing system will impact Middle Tennessee next weekend.
In the near-term, expect drought conditions to continue worsening.
However, there is the possibility of significant rainfall next Saturday and Sunday that would bring much-needed relief from the dryness.