Shift Next Weekend
Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 6:56 PM
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Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the end of the upcoming week. No rain is expected through Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift next weekend. Drought conditions will continue to worsen. An amplified midlevel ridge sits stuck over Arkansas Louisiana Texas Northerly flow aloft drags dry air down from the Central Plains Mid to upper seventies every afternoon across Middle Tennessee Another persistence forecast locked in dusty chains Broad ridging across the country holds five to ten degrees above normal Areawide drought conditions worsening day after day Looking past Friday night for the first real sign of change Waiting for the pattern to finally yield away The dry sky burns and the dust rolls high Not a single cloud goes passing by Holding on until the pattern breaks We need a shift next weekend! Long Range Ensemble Forecast hints at Halloween night Transitioning at last to a troffing regime Thirty to forty percent chance of rain Saturday night into Sunday Outliers early, but we are chasing the dream The dry sky burns and the dust rolls high Not a single cloud goes passing by Holding on until the pattern breaks We need a shift next weekend! Shift next weekend! Break the ridge! Troffing regime on Halloween night! Shift next weekend!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 649 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
- Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the end of the upcoming week.
- No rain is expected through Friday night, but the weather pattern will begin to shift next weekend.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Another cool, dry, and sunny day is underway across Middle TN. This morning's upper air soundings placed a highly amplified midlevel ridge over the ArkLATex region, leading to northerly flow aloft for the TN Valley.
This is part of the reason we have such pleasant humidity values; cool, dry air is being advected along the ridge from the Central Plains.
Expect a persistence forecast through the weekend as this same pattern will set up again tomorrow.
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
The majority of the week is expected to feature broad ridging over the eastern CONUS, which will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal.
Despite this abnormally warm regime, it will still feel quite pleasant to the average person. "Normal" temperatures for this time of year are around 70 degrees in the afternoon, so temperatures in the mid to upper 70s is anomalous but not uncomfortably warm.
Humidity remains low through the week as well.
With no rain in sight through the end of the week, areawide drought conditions are expected to worsen.
You'll have to look beyond the current forecast period for signs of a pattern shift.
Long range ensembles finally hint at a transition to more to a troughing regime starting next Saturday (Halloween).
LREF probabilities of measurable rainfall (0.01") jump up to 30-40% Saturday night into Sunday morning.
This will be something to keep an eye on for trick-or-treating night.
Several solutions are much later with the onset of precip on Sunday, but worth keeping an eye on for the few outliers Saturday afternoon.