Fuels Dry Out
Sunday, October 25, 2026 · 12:11 AM
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Updated at twelve zero nine A.M. Central Daylight Time, Sunday, October twenty-fifth, twenty twenty-six. Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the upcoming week. No rain is expected through Friday night, but the weather pattern will hopefully begin to shift next weekend. Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term. Surface ridge trailing along the Appalachians. Southerly winds creeping back across Middle Tennessee. Afternoon relative humidity values collapsing in the dry air. Light winds holding back the fire spread for now. Available fuels continue to dry out in the quiet heat. High pressure remains the dominant feature aloft. Clear skies locking down the upper levels. Diurnal spreads widening in the silent valley. Cool nights giving way to warm afternoon sun. Radiation fog rising overnight. No meaningful shift in the pressure pattern. The atmosphere holding its breath. Waiting for the break. We watch the sun burn through the clear morning air. Waiting on a shift that never comes in time. Conditions worsening in the near term. Fuels dry out. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHRINK TO NEAR ZERO! ZERO! ZERO! Hopefully next weekend. Hopefully next weekend. Drought continues.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1209 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026
- Warm, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the the upcoming week.
- No rain is expected through Friday night, but the weather pattern will hopefully begin to shift next weekend.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen in the near-term.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday Night) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
The surface ridge that has been parked to the north and west of Middle Tennessee has finally come through and now trails along the Appalachians.
Surface winds have shifted to the south and dew points have started to come up. It appears that radiation fog may be a little more widespread overnight as dew point depressions shrink to near zero in many spots.
But we still don't expect any meaningful pattern shift in coming days as high pressure remains the dominant weather feature across the region both at the surface and aloft.
Afternoon RH values will continue to be quite low for the foreseeable future, so there is obviously an increased fire risk as available fuels continue to dry out.
However, light winds will also prevent the fire risk from being further elevated.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Temperatures throughout the upcoming week will warm very gradually.
We'll still enjoy relatively cool nights and warm afternoons for most of the week, with larger-than-normal diurnal spreads.
However, the persistent high pressure will finally start to break down by week's end, and confidence is increasing that a weather-producing system will impact Middle Tennessee next weekend.
In the near-term, expect drought conditions to continue worsening.
However, there is the possibility of significant rainfall next Saturday and Sunday that would bring much-needed relief from the dryness.