Trick Or Treat
Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 11:20 AM
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Lyrics
Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the end of the upcoming work week. No rain is expected through the upcoming week, but the pattern begins to shift next weekend. Drought conditions will continue to worsen. Hahaha! Oh yeah! Step right up, everybody! Well, look here baby, Tennessee is sitting in the sun, Upper air soundings show the party's just begun! Got a midlevel ridge parked over Arkansas Louisiana Texas tonight, Advecting cool dry air, keeping the atmosphere tight! Five to ten degrees above normal, yeah that feels real sweet, Mid to upper seventies rolling right down the street! The drought gets worse while the ridge runs high! Not a single drop falling from the clear blue sky! But next Saturday night when the troff comes clean, Are you ready for the trick or treat? Long range ensemble forecasts whispering a spooky little tale, Probabilities fixing to prevail! Thirty to forty percent for zero point zero one inches of rain, Outliers creeping in to break this dry spell chain! Halloween night got a pattern shift in store, So roll the dice baby, 'cause we're begging for more! The drought gets worse while the ridge runs high! Not a single drop falling from the clear blue sky! But next Saturday night when the troff comes clean, Are you ready for the trick or treat? The drought gets worse while the ridge runs high! Not a single drop falling from the clear blue sky! But next Saturday night when the troff comes clean, Are you ready for the trick or treat? Trick or treat, baby! Thirty to forty percent! Watch out for Saturday night! Haha! Oh yeah!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1055 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
- Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the end of the upcoming work week.
- No rain is expected through the upcoming week, but the pattern begins to shift next weekend.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Another cool, dry, and sunny day is underway across Middle TN. This morning's upper air soundings placed a highly amplified midlevel ridge over the ArkLATex region, leading to northerly flow aloft for the TN Valley.
This is part of the reason we have such pleasant humidity values; cool, dry air is being advected along the ridge from the Central Plains.
Expect a persistence forecast through the weekend as this same pattern will set up again tomorrow.
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
The majority of the week is expected to feature broad ridging over the eastern CONUS, which will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal.
Despite this abnormally warm regime, it will still feel quite pleasant to the average person. "Normal" temperatures for this time of year are around 70 degrees in the afternoon, so temperatures in the mid to upper 70s is anomalous but not uncomfortably warm.
Humidity remains low through the week as well.
With no rain in sight through the end of the week, areawide drought conditions are expected to worsen.
You'll have to look beyond the current forecast period for signs of a pattern shift.
Long range ensembles finally hint at a transition to more to a troughing regime starting next Saturday (Halloween).
LREF probabilities of measurable rainfall (0.01") jump up to 30-40% Saturday night into Sunday morning.
This will be something to keep an eye on for trick-or-treating night.
Several solutions are much later with the onset of precip on Sunday, but worth keeping an eye on for the few outliers Saturday afternoon.