Push Relief Away
Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 5:48 AM
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Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future. No rain is expected through the next seven days. Drought conditions will continue to worsen. A surface ridge remains locked north and west. No change in air mass characteristics. Afternoon relative humidity bottoming out at twenty-five to thirty-five percent. Zero zero zulu sounding at the Nashville office. Sliding across the mid-state over twenty-four to thirty-six hours, It leaves absolutely no impact on our weather whatsoever. Large diurnal ranges, cool clear nights, sunny days baking the dirt. The ridge glides over us and leaves us empty. The National Blend of Models holds no hope. Initial rain chances keep getting pushed farther into the future, Erased with each successive model run. The sky promises nothing. The air mass will not yield, The ground continues to crack, With every single model run, They push relief away. ZERO POINT THREE FIVE INCHES! PRECIPITABLE WATER AT ZERO POINT THREE FIVE INCHES! NEAR DAILY MINIMUM VALUES! BONE DRY AIR MASS! Push relief away. Farther into the future. Bone dry. No rain.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 546 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
- Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future.
- No rain is expected through the next 7 days.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
A surface ridge remains locked in place to the north and west of Middle Tennessee, so there has been absolutely no change in air mass characteristics, and none is expected any time soon.
It does appear that the ridge will slide across the mid state during the next 24-36 hours, but this will have absolutely no impact on our weather whatsoever.
The air mass remains bone-dry around the mid state, with afternoon RH values expected to bottom out in the 25-35% range tomorrow for a greater portion of the region, and in the 30-40% range on Sunday most areas.
Indeed, the Precipitable Water value on the 00Z sounding at OHX is 0.35", which is below the 10th percentile climatologically and very close to a daily minimum value.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
The beat goes on. Maximum temperatures throughout the next days will remain a few degrees above climatological norms while minimum temperatures will be right around normal values.
So the persistent dry air will continue to yield relatively large diurnal ranges.
At this time, the next appreciable rain chances via the NBM won't happen until next Saturday night and Sunday, which is beyond the 7-day forecast period, and even those initial rain chances keep getting pushed farther into the future with each model run.
So drought conditions will continue to worsen for now..