A Troffing Regime
Saturday, October 24, 2026 · 12:26 PM
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Updated at twelve twenty-three P.M. Central Daylight Time Saturday October twenty-fourth twenty twenty-six. Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the end of the upcoming work week. No rain is expected through the upcoming week, but the pattern begins to shift next weekend. Drought conditions will continue to worsen. An amplified midlevel ridge holds over the Arkansas Louisiana Texas region. Northerly flow aloft. Cool, dry air advecting from the Central Plains. Another sunny afternoon across Middle Tennessee. It feels so pleasant to the average person. Mid to upper seventies, five to ten degrees above normal. Clear nights, perfect sun, clear skies. We watch the soil quietly crack under the high pressure dome. The ridge refuses to move. Persistence forecast day after day. Zero point zero one inches feels like a distant memory! Areawide dry ground burning beneath the broad ridging! We are starving for humidity! Looking out past seven days just to see a single sign of relief! Looking to next Saturday, looking for Halloween night! LREF probabilities jumping thirty to forty percent! SHIFT THE PATTERN! COLLAPSE THE HIGH! WE ARE BEGGING FOR RAIN IN THE MIDWEST SUN! BREAK THE DUST AND BRING US A TROFFING REGIME! WE NEED A TROFFING REGIME! THIRTY TO FORTY PERCENT! ZERO POINT ZERO ONE INCHES! OCTOBER IS BLEEDING DRY! A TROFFING REGIME! BRING US A TROFFING REGIME! Shift next weekend. A troffing regime. A troffing regime!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
- Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue through the end of the upcoming work week.
- No rain is expected through the upcoming week, but the pattern begins to shift next weekend.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Sunday) Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
Another cool, dry, and sunny day is underway across Middle TN. This morning's upper air soundings placed a highly amplified midlevel ridge over the ArkLATex region, leading to northerly flow aloft for the TN Valley.
This is part of the reason we have such pleasant humidity values; cool, dry air is being advected along the ridge from the Central Plains.
Expect a persistence forecast through the weekend as this same pattern will set up again tomorrow.
LONG TERM
(Sunday Night through next Saturday) Issued at 1055 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026
The majority of the week is expected to feature broad ridging over the eastern CONUS, which will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal.
Despite this abnormally warm regime, it will still feel quite pleasant to the average person. "Normal" temperatures for this time of year are around 70 degrees in the afternoon, so temperatures in the mid to upper 70s is anomalous but not uncomfortably warm.
Humidity remains low through the week as well.
With no rain in sight through the end of the week, areawide drought conditions are expected to worsen.
You'll have to look beyond the current forecast period for signs of a pattern shift.
Long range ensembles finally hint at a transition to more to a troughing regime starting next Saturday (Halloween).
LREF probabilities of measurable rainfall (0.01") jump up to 30-40% Saturday night into Sunday morning.
This will be something to keep an eye on for trick-or-treating night.
Several solutions are much later with the onset of precip on Sunday, but worth keeping an eye on for the few outliers Saturday afternoon.