Day After Day
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 8:40 PM
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Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future. No rain is expected through the next seven days. Drought conditions will continue to worsen. An anomalously strong upper-level ridge sits frozen over the central continental United States A broad wall of surface high pressure stretches from the Great Lakes down to the Gulf Seventies in the daylight, chilly forties in the night Only daybreak fog along the rivers offering a ghostly trace of white Light winds carry no mercy across the parched and bleeding ground The forecaster writes into the dark teletype glass A copy and paste sentence for the days that pass One of the most stable patterns remembered in our lifetime The ridge above will never yield A ghost of water in the field We burn beneath this blinding ray Hitting the same marks day after day The Global Forecast System model hints at droplets on Halloween night An illusion of liquid water falling from the sky in the light But the ensemble mean comes in at only thirty percent Droughts are stubborn monsters that refuse to relent The ridge above will never yield A ghost of water in the field We burn beneath this blinding ray Hitting the same marks day after day Hitting the same marks Day after day Day after day The pattern holds forever Day after day
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 837 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
- Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future.
- No rain is expected through the next 7 days.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
There are no substantial changes to the forecast today.
An anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the central CONUS and a broad area of surface high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf will maintain the current weather pattern across Middle TN. Daytime highs will reach the 70s while overnight lows will be seasonably chilly, mostly in the 40s.
The only other noteworthy feature will be patchy daybreak fog along lakes and rivers.
Dry air will continue to bring concerns for fires and worsening drought.
Thankfully, winds are expected to stay light.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
COPY+PASTE - This is one of the most stable patterns I can remember with temps hitting the same marks day after day.
Dry with worsening drought through Friday.
The operational GFS shows rain (liquid water in the form of droplets falling from clouds to the ground) moving in late Friday into Saturday (Halloween).
ENS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble mean comes in at only 30 percent chance for measurable rain Saturday.
Interestingly, those percentages go up considerably in all ensemble members for the start of November.
That's a long time out for models, and droughts are stubborn, but there is some hope.