Tenth Percentile
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 10:39 PM
Watch and listen
Lyrics
Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future. No rain is expected through the next seven days. Drought conditions will continue to worsen. Locked in place to the north and west! A surface ridge that never slides! Zero zulu sounding over Nashville! Precipitable water zero point three five inches! Twenty-five to thirty-five percent relative humidity! An air mass hollowed out from the inside! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile! Tenth percentile!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1029 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
- Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future.
- No rain is expected through the next 7 days.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
A surface ridge remains locked in place to the north and west of Middle Tennessee, so there has been absolutely no change in air mass characteristics, and none is expected any time soon.
It does appear that the ridge will slide across the mid state during the next 24-36 hours, but this will have absolutely no impact on our weather whatsoever.
The air mass remains bone-dry around the mid state, with afternoon RH values expected to bottom out in the 25-35% range tomorrow for a greater portion of the region, and in the 30-40% range on Sunday most areas.
Indeed, the Precipitable Water value on the 00Z sounding at OHX is 0.35", which is below the 10th percentile climatologically and very close to a daily minimum value.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
The beat goes on. Maximum temperatures throughout the next days will remain a few degrees above climatological norms while minimum temperatures will be right around normal values.
So the persistent dry air will continue to yield relatively large diurnal ranges.
At this time, the next appreciable rain chances via the NBM won't happen until next Saturday night and Sunday, which is beyond the 7-day forecast period, and even those initial rain chances keep getting pushed farther into the future with each model run.
So drought conditions will continue to worsen for now..