Liquid Water
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 12:40 PM
Watch and listen
Lyrics
Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future. No rain is expected through the next seven days. Drought conditions will continue to worsen. Anomalously strong upper level ridge Standing like a wall over every single bridge Surface high pressure Great Lakes to the Gulf Middle Tennessee baking while the ground turns rough Highs in the seventies, lows in the forties Patchy daybreak fog along the rivers early Light winds blowing through the endless dry air Not a single rain cloud anywhere! Copy and paste! Hit the button again! This pattern won't break and it won't ever end! Ensemble models say thirty percent! Where did the moisture go? Where was it sent? High pressure stretch from the Lakes to the Gulf We scream at the skies but the ridge is too tough Give me one drop falling down from the clouds I just want liquid water! The operational Global Forecast System tries to show a change Late Friday into Halloween, something strange Droplets falling down to the surface from the sky But thirty percent is a promise and a lie! Droughts are stubborn, November holds the hope While we're dangling at the end of a frayed dry rope! High pressure stretch from the Lakes to the Gulf We scream at the skies but the ridge is too tough Give me one drop falling down from the clouds I just want liquid water! Liquid water! Halloween hope! Thirty percent! Droughts are stubborn! Give me liquid water!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1237 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
- Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future.
- No rain is expected through the next 7 days.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
There are no substantial changes to the forecast today.
An anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the central CONUS and a broad area of surface high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf will maintain the current weather pattern across Middle TN. Daytime highs will reach the 70s while overnight lows will be seasonably chilly, mostly in the 40s.
The only other noteworthy feature will be patchy daybreak fog along lakes and rivers.
Dry air will continue to bring concerns for fires and worsening drought.
Thankfully, winds are expected to stay light.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
COPY+PASTE - This is one of the most stable patterns I can remember with temps hitting the same marks day after day.
Dry with worsening drought through Friday.
The operational GFS shows rain (liquid water in the form of droplets falling from clouds to the ground) moving in late Friday into Saturday (Halloween).
ENS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble mean comes in at only 30 percent chance for measurable rain Saturday.
Interestingly, those percentages go up considerably in all ensemble members for the start of November.
That's a long time out for models, and droughts are stubborn, but there is some hope.