Droughts Are Stubborn
Friday, October 23, 2026 · 11:15 AM
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Lyrics
. Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future. No rain is expected through the next seven days. Drought conditions will continue to worsen. Anomalous ridge. Central continental United States. High pressure locked. Great Lakes to the Gulf. Seventies by day. Forties by night. Patchy daybreak fog along the river banks. Winds stay light. Dry air bites. Copy and paste! The pattern is locked! Same numbers hit! The operational Global Forecast System lies! DROUGHTS ARE STUBBORN! DROUGHTS ARE STUBBORN! DROUGHTS ARE STUBBORN! DROUGHTS ARE STUBBORN! Thirty percent chance. Ensemble mean. First of November. A long time out. No liquid water. No droplets fall. Static horizon. Dust takes all. Upper level lock! Zero relief! Copy and paste! Copy and paste! DROUGHTS ARE STUBBORN! DROUGHTS ARE STUBBORN! DROUGHTS ARE STUBBORN! DROUGHTS ARE STUBBORN! Stubborn! Stubborn! Locked pattern! No rain!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1115 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
- Mild, sunny days and cool, clear nights will continue for the foreseeable future.
- No rain is expected through the next 7 days.
- Drought conditions will continue to worsen.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
There are no substantial changes to the forecast today.
An anomalously strong upper-level ridge over the central CONUS and a broad area of surface high pressure extending from the Great Lakes to the Gulf will maintain the current weather pattern across Middle TN. Daytime highs will reach the 70s while overnight lows will be seasonably chilly, mostly in the 40s.
The only other noteworthy feature will be patchy daybreak fog along lakes and rivers.
Dry air will continue to bring concerns for fires and worsening drought.
Thankfully, winds are expected to stay light.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026
COPY+PASTE - This is one of the most stable patterns I can remember with temps hitting the same marks day after day.
Dry with worsening drought through Friday.
The operational GFS shows rain (liquid water in the form of droplets falling from clouds to the ground) moving in late Friday into Saturday (Halloween).
ENS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble mean comes in at only 30 percent chance for measurable rain Saturday.
Interestingly, those percentages go up considerably in all ensemble members for the start of November.
That's a long time out for models, and droughts are stubborn, but there is some hope.