Hard Time Absorbing
Friday, October 9, 2026 · 12:18 AM
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Quiet Friday with just increasing cloud cover and temperatures in the eighties. Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds of thirty to forty miles per hour this weekend. Rain totals are expected to be around one to three inches. Tornado threat is low. Warm, dry weather returns Monday. Ten twenty-nine P.M. Central Daylight— Satellite streams in— Clouds courtesy of— Wait— One point five to one point seven five inches! Precipitable water rising past— Ninetieth percentile— Saturday morning— Track north-northwest into— The Tennessee Valley! Interstate forty! South and west— Davidson County— Late Friday night into early— Thirty to sixty percent chance— Over forty-five miles per hour! Abundant storm relative helicity— Very little to— No— Instability! THESE TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE TRICKY! THEY DEVELOP VERY QUICKLY! EVEN FROM A SHOWER WITH NO LIGHTNING! THE WATER COMES DOWN ALL AT ONCE! SOILS ARE VERY DRY! SOILS ARE VERY DRY! One to three inches on the ground! Worsening drought cannot hold this weight! Water running off before it drowns! Soils have a hard time absorbing! Tracking north-north-east on Sunday— Rain chances ending— Eighty degrees next week— Ten degrees above normal— Quiet again— Cut—
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1215 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026
- Quiet Friday with just increasing cloud cover and temperatures in the 80s.
- Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph this weekend.
Rain totals are expected to be around 1 to 3 inches.
Tornado threat is low.
- Warm, dry weather returns Monday.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
All is quiet across Middle TN this evening.
Satellite imagery does show clouds streaming into the area courtesy of Hurricane Isaias.
Look for clouds to continue moving into Middle TN tonight through Friday.
But otherwise, no weather concerns through Friday as temperatures warm into the 80s.
Hurricane Isaias will make landfall along the Gulf Coast late Friday and will track NNW into the TN Valley.
As it does so, abundant tropical moisture will stream into the area with PWATs rising to 1.5 to 1.75 inches, above the 90th percentile.
As such, rain and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday morning with highest rain chances Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Forecast rain amounts are still ranging from 1 to 3 inches with highest rain totals favoring areas along and south of I-40. While this is certainly rain that we need due to worsening drought conditions, we are still concerned about the flooding risk.
Soils are very dry and may have a hard time absorbing a lot of rain falling in a short period of time.
A Flood Watch is still in effect for Davidson County and areas south and west for late Friday night into early Sunday morning.
The tornado risk will this system is still low Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Forecast soundings show abundant SRH, however, they also show very little to no instability.
But tornadoes from tropical systems can be tricky and can develop very quickly, even from a shower with no lightning.
This tropical system will also bring gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph. Highest wind gusts are expected Saturday afternoon and evening with higher gusts not out of the question.
NBM gives a 30-60% chance of gusts over 45 mph across southern Middle TN.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
The remnants of Isaias will track NNE out of Middle TN on Sunday with rain chances ending southwest to northeast.
Quieter weather returns through next week as high pressure builds over the area.
High temperatures will warm into the 80s, averaging 10 degrees above normal.