Zero Instability
Thursday, October 8, 2026 · 10:37 PM
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Quiet Friday with just increasing cloud cover and temperatures in the eighties. Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds of thirty to forty miles per hour this weekend. Rain totals are expected to be around one to three inches. Tornado threat is low. Warm, dry weather returns Monday. Satellite imagery shows the clouds moving in Courtesy of Hurricane Isaias let the chaos begin Friday is quiet across Middle Tennessee Warming to the eighties feeling calm and free But abundant tropical moisture streams in tonight Precipitable water rising up in plain sight! Above the ninetieth percentile moisture load South of Interstate forty down the heavy road! Soils are bone dry from the drought in the ground Hard time absorbing when the water comes down! Thirty to forty miles per hour wind! One to three inches where the storm begins! Davidson County under watch from the sea! Zero instability! Yeah, zero instability! Flood Watch in effect through the valley tonight Abundant storm relative helicity in flight! Rain and thunderstorms moving in real fast Thirty to sixty percent chance of a forty-five blast! Tropical tornadoes can trick you in the dark Even a shower with no lightning leaves a mark! Thirty to forty miles per hour wind! One to three inches where the storm begins! Davidson County under watch from the sea! Zero instability! Yeah, zero instability! Zero instability! Isaias tracks north-northeast out of the way! High pressure building up to save the day! Ten degrees above normal on Monday morning! Zero instability!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1029 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
- Quiet Friday with just increasing cloud cover and temperatures in the 80s.
- Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph this weekend.
Rain totals are expected to be around 1 to 3 inches.
Tornado threat is low.
- Warm, dry weather returns Monday.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
All is quiet across Middle TN this evening.
Satellite imagery does show clouds streaming into the area courtesy of Hurricane Isaias.
Look for clouds to continue moving into Middle TN tonight through Friday.
But otherwise, no weather concerns through Friday as temperatures warm into the 80s.
Hurricane Isaias will make landfall along the Gulf Coast late Friday and will track NNW into the TN Valley.
As it does so, abundant tropical moisture will stream into the area with PWATs rising to 1.5 to 1.75 inches, above the 90th percentile.
As such, rain and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday morning with highest rain chances Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Forecast rain amounts are still ranging from 1 to 3 inches with highest rain totals favoring areas along and south of I-40. While this is certainly rain that we need due to worsening drought conditions, we are still concerned about the flooding risk.
Soils are very dry and may have a hard time absorbing a lot of rain falling in a short period of time.
A Flood Watch is still in effect for Davidson County and areas south and west for late Friday night into early Sunday morning.
The tornado risk will this system is still low Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Forecast soundings show abundant SRH, however, they also show very little to no instability.
But tornadoes from tropical systems can be tricky and can develop very quickly, even from a shower with no lightning.
This tropical system will also bring gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph. Highest wind gusts are expected Saturday afternoon and evening with higher gusts not out of the question.
NBM gives a 30-60% chance of gusts over 45 mph across southern Middle TN.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
The remnants of Isaias will track NNE out of Middle TN on Sunday with rain chances ending southwest to northeast.
Quieter weather returns through next week as high pressure builds over the area.
High temperatures will warm into the 80s, averaging 10 degrees above normal.