Tornado From a Shower
Friday, October 9, 2026 · 6:27 AM
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Lyrics
Quiet today with just increasing cloud cover and temperatures in the eighties. Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds of thirty to forty miles per hour this weekend. Rain totals are expected to be around one to three inches. Tornado threat is low. Warm, dry weather returns Monday. Clock ticking down! Eighty degrees! Clouds stream North-North-West! Isaias makes landfall! Precipitable water rising fast! One point five to one point seven five! Ninetieth percentile peak! Interstate forty boundary line! Davidson County flood watch set! Dry soil locked! Cannot absorb! Zero instability! Abundant storm-relative helicity! No lightning needed! Shear creates! Low instability! High low-level shear! The Gulf tracks north! The ground will tear! TORNADO FROM A SHOWER! TORNADO FROM A SHOWER! National Blend of Models surge! Sixty percent chance forty-five miles per hour! Southern Middle Tennessee targeted! Rain totals one to three inches! Tropical moisture streaming in! Saturday night peak threat! FALLING FAST! NO LIGHTNING! SPIN UP! SPIN UP! Low instability! High low-level shear! The Gulf tracks north! The ground will tear! TORNADO FROM A SHOWER! TORNADO FROM A SHOWER! Tracking North-North-East! Rain ends Sunday! Warm dry Monday! Ten degrees above normal! High pressure builds!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026
- Quiet today with just increasing cloud cover and temperatures in the 80s.
- Remnants of Isaias will bring high rain chances and gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph this weekend.
Rain totals are expected to be around 1 to 3 inches.
Tornado threat is low.
- Warm, dry weather returns Monday.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
All is quiet across Middle TN this evening.
Satellite imagery does show clouds streaming into the area courtesy of Hurricane Isaias.
Look for clouds to continue moving into Middle TN tonight through Friday.
But otherwise, no weather concerns through Friday as temperatures warm into the 80s.
Hurricane Isaias will make landfall along the Gulf Coast late Friday and will track NNW into the TN Valley.
As it does so, abundant tropical moisture will stream into the area with PWATs rising to 1.5 to 1.75 inches, above the 90th percentile.
As such, rain and thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday morning with highest rain chances Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.
Forecast rain amounts are still ranging from 1 to 3 inches with highest rain totals favoring areas along and south of I-40. While this is certainly rain that we need due to worsening drought conditions, we are still concerned about the flooding risk.
Soils are very dry and may have a hard time absorbing a lot of rain falling in a short period of time.
A Flood Watch is still in effect for Davidson County and areas south and west for late Friday night into early Sunday morning.
The tornado risk will this system is still low Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.
Forecast soundings show abundant SRH, however, they also show very little to no instability.
But tornadoes from tropical systems can be tricky and can develop very quickly, even from a shower with no lightning.
This tropical system will also bring gusty winds of 30 to 40 mph. Highest wind gusts are expected Saturday afternoon and evening with higher gusts not out of the question.
NBM gives a 30-60% chance of gusts over 45 mph across southern Middle TN.
LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026
The remnants of Isaias will track NNE out of Middle TN on Sunday with rain chances ending southwest to northeast.
Quieter weather returns through next week as high pressure builds over the area.
High temperatures will warm into the 80s, averaging 10 degrees above normal.