Residual Cyclone
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · 4:39 AM
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Updated at four thirty-three A.M. Central Daylight Time Wednesday October seventh twenty twenty-six. Dry weather through Friday with cool nights and warm days. High rain chances and windy this weekend with remnants of what will become Hurricane Isaias. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are expected, with a low chance less than thirty percent of three inches or more. Heaviest rainfall Saturday and Saturday night. Wind gusts over thirty miles per hour at times. Transition back to warm, dry weather early next week. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW! HIGH PRESSURE FOOTPRINT! MOISTURE-DEPRIVED DISTURBANCE! STABLE! DRY! SOUTHWEST GULF! ORGANIZATION UNDERWAY! ANOMALOUS MOISTURE! FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY! UPPER-LEVEL TROFF! SOUTHERN PLAINS! RESIDUAL CYCLONE! RESIDUAL CYCLONE! SATURDAY EVENING! SUNDAY MORNING! GUSTS OVER THIRTY! ONE TO TWO INCHES! MERGING LOW! PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM! BENEFICIAL RAIN! NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT! DEPARTING NORTHEAST! WARM AND DRY! RESIDUAL CYCLONE!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 433 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026
- Dry weather through Friday with cool nights and warm days.
- High rain chances and windy this weekend with remnants of what will become Hurricane Isaias.
Rainfall totals of 1-2" are expected, with a low chance (<30%) of 3" or more.
Heaviest rainfall Saturday and Saturday night.
Wind gusts over 30 mph at times.
- Transition back to warm, dry weather early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Broad northwesterly flow aloft persists across the region with a large footprint of high pressure situated across the eastern CONUS.
Middle Tennessee remains dry and stable weather-wise.
Warm afternoons and cool nights are forecast for the rest of the work week, and no rain is forecast despite the passage of a moisture- deprived shortwave disturbance and cold front on Thursday.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Weekend weather is looking a little more interesting now that organization of a tropical system is underway in the southwest Gulf.
Medium-range guidance has remained fairly consistent with this system progressing north between a subtropical ridge over the Bahamas and an upper-level trough moving into the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday.
This should provide a favorable trajectory into the Tennessee Valley on Saturday.
As such, presence of this residual tropical cyclone and anomalous moisture has led to further increases in rain chances/amounts this weekend.
Generally speaking, rain amounts of 1-2" are forecast across Middle Tennessee, with a low chance (<30%) of amounts 3" or more.
Heaviest rainfall is currently expected Saturday evening through Sunday morning.
Thankfully the rather progressive nature of the system is keeping rainfall amounts in check.
This is due to the tropical low merging with the upper-level trough moving out of the Southern Plains.
Thus, at this time, we don't expect significant impacts to Middle Tennessee - just beneficial rainfall and perhaps some breezy winds.
Nonetheless, we'll monitor forecast changes over the next couple of days closely.
We should transition back to drier, warmer weather early next week after this system departs to the northeast.