Break The Calm
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · 5:22 AM
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Dry weather through Friday with cool nights and warm days. High rain chances and windy this weekend with remnants of what will become Hurricane Isaias. Rainfall totals of one to two inches and thirty plus miles per hour wind gusts expected. Transition back to warm, dry weather early next week. High pressure holds across the eastern states. Cool nights, warm days, a quiet lull. Out in the southwest Gulf, the low begins to turn. Steered between the subtropical ridge over the Bahamas and an upper level troff moving into the Southern Plains. A favorable trajectory into the Tennessee Valley. Saturday evening through Sunday morning, the tropical low merges with the trough. Thirty plus miles per hour wind gusts sweeping in, one to two inches of rain coming down. It merges with the upper level troff It feeds the dry ground with the storm One to two inches falling down Beneficial rain will break the calm ANOMALOUS MOISTURE! ANOMALOUS MOISTURE! ANOMALOUS MOISTURE! BENEFICIAL RAIN WILL BREAK THE CALM!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 520 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026
- Dry weather through Friday with cool nights and warm days.
- High rain chances and windy this weekend with remnants of what will become Hurricane Isaias.
Rainfall totals of 1-2" and 30+ mph wind gusts expected.
- Transition back to warm, dry weather early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Broad northwesterly flow aloft persists across the region with a large footprint of high pressure situated across the eastern CONUS.
Middle Tennessee remains dry and stable weather-wise.
Warm afternoons and cool nights are forecast for the rest of the work week, and no rain is forecast despite the passage of a moisture- deprived shortwave disturbance and cold front on Thursday.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Weekend weather is looking a little more interesting now that organization of a tropical system is underway in the southwest Gulf.
Medium-range guidance has remained fairly consistent with this system progressing north between a subtropical ridge over the Bahamas and an upper-level trough moving into the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday.
This should provide a favorable trajectory into the Tennessee Valley on Saturday.
As such, presence of this residual tropical cyclone and anomalous moisture has led to further increases in rain chances/amounts this weekend.
Generally speaking, rain amounts of 1-2" are forecast across Middle Tennessee, with a low chance (<30%) of amounts 3" or more.
Heaviest rainfall is currently expected Saturday evening through Sunday morning.
Thankfully the rather progressive nature of the system is keeping rainfall amounts in check.
This is due to the tropical low merging with the upper-level trough moving out of the Southern Plains.
Thus, at this time, we don't expect significant impacts to Middle Tennessee - just beneficial rainfall and perhaps some breezy winds.
Nonetheless, we'll monitor forecast changes over the next couple of days closely.
We should transition back to drier, warmer weather early next week after this system departs to the northeast.