3 Inches Or More
Wednesday, October 7, 2026 · 12:11 AM
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Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days. High rain chances this weekend. Rainfall totals of one to two inches are expected, with a low chance less than thirty percent of three inches or more. Heaviest rainfall is expected Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Transition back to warm, dry weather early next week. Broad northwesterly flow aloft across the region. A footprint of high pressure over eastern soil. Middle Tennessee remains dry and stable. A moisture deprived shortwave passes on Thursday. Tropical low tracking north from the Gulf. Trapped between the subtropical ridge and an upper troff. Anomalous moisture surging into the valley. Saturday evening into Sunday morning. The low merges with the upper system. The pressure drops as the sky turns black. Restrained until the atmosphere breaks. Water filling every crack in the dry ground. Residual low dragging moisture from the shore. One to two inches on the valley floor, we are waiting for three inches or more. LESS THAN THIRTY PERCENT! LESS THAN THIRTY PERCENT! THREE INCHES OR MORE! Transition back to warm and dry. The system departs to the northeast. Silence returns.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1208 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026
- Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days.
- High rain chances this weekend.
Rainfall totals of 1-2" are expected, with a low chance (<30%) of 3" or more.
Heaviest rainfall is expected Saturday evening into Sunday morning.
- Transition back to warm, dry weather early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Broad northwesterly flow aloft persists across the region with a large footprint of high pressure situated across the eastern CONUS.
Middle Tennessee remains dry and stable weather-wise.
Warm afternoons and cool nights are forecast for the rest of the work week, and no rain is forecast despite the passage of a moisture- deprived shortwave disturbance and cold front on Thursday.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026
Weekend weather is looking a little more interesting now that organization of a tropical system is underway in the southwest Gulf.
Medium-range guidance has remained fairly consistent with this system progressing north between a subtropical ridge over the Bahamas and an upper-level trough moving into the Southern Plains Friday into Saturday.
This should provide a favorable trajectory into the Tennessee Valley on Saturday.
As such, presence of this residual tropical cyclone and anomalous moisture has led to further increases in rain chances/amounts this weekend.
Generally speaking, rain amounts of 1-2" are forecast across Middle Tennessee, with a low chance (<30%) of amounts 3" or more.
Heaviest rainfall is currently expected Saturday evening through Sunday morning.
Thankfully the rather progressive nature of the system is keeping rainfall amounts in check.
This is due to the tropical low merging with the upper-level trough moving out of the Southern Plains.
Thus, at this time, we don't expect significant impacts to Middle Tennessee - just beneficial rainfall and perhaps some breezy winds.
Nonetheless, we'll monitor forecast changes over the next couple of days closely.
We should transition back to drier, warmer weather early next week after this system departs to the northeast.