Play It Safe
Monday, October 5, 2026 · 11:06 AM
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Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days. Low to medium rain chances less than fifty percent this weekend. High pressure establishing over Middle Tennessee... A crisp fall feeling settling in tonight... Lows dropping to the upper forty to low fifty degree range... The north breeze feels better than advertised today Humidity fading quietly into the late afternoon Highs warming from the mid seventies into the low eighties Everything feels still, everything feels calm As we creep toward another dry October night But under the clear skies, the grass is dry and thin Relative humidity dropping to the mid thirty percent range Wind gusts picking up to twenty miles per hour South of Interstate forty, the spark is waiting The ridge holds firm and the dry air tightens its grip! MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER BURNING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM! WARMING PATTERN CLIMBING INTO THE MID EIGHTIES! WITH HOW DRY WE ARE TODAY YOU BETTER PLAY IT SAFE! YOU BETTER PLAY IT SAFE! WAITING ON A SURFACE TROFF TO BRING THE GULF MOISTURE BACK! LESS THAN FIFTY PERCENT CHANCE THIS WEEKEND! WE CANNOT BUST THIS DROUGHT ON HOPE ALONE! SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY IT ALL BURNS DRY! Crisp fall feeling... Tuesday creeping into the mid eighties... Play it safe...
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1106 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
- Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days.
- Low to medium rain chances (<50%) this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1106 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Clear skies and establishing high pressure makes for a gorgeous start to the work week here in Middle Tennessee.
Expect highs to be a bit warmer than yesterday, in the mid 70s to low 80s.
The north breeze and lower humidity should help it feel better than advertised.
Unfortunately, this has brought about some marginal fire weather concerns south of I-40, as RHs drop to the mid 30% range, with wind gusts up to 20 MPH. With how dry we are, even after the rain we saw, it's best to play it safe when it comes to fire today.
Overnight expect a crisp fall feeling, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s and clear skies.
Tuesday will continue the warming pattern as highs creep into the low to mid 80s.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1106 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Highs will continue to warm into the upper 80s through the work week.
High pressure will keep us dry through the week, with the next low chance for rain on the weekend.
Guidance suggests a surface trough will bring in some Gulf moisture to Middle Tennessee, which will hopefully result in some decent rainfall.
Ideally we can get enough to help bust more of this drought, but we're unsure on specifics like amounts and exact locations at this time.