Marginal Fire Weather
Monday, October 5, 2026 · 5:48 AM
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Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days. Low to medium rain chances less than fifty percent this weekend. Caught in the rift between two fronts! Forty-nine dewpoint cutting straight through Clarksville! Cool nights freezing the grass while afternoons burn! High pressure dragging across the Ohio Valley! The air is stripped, the moisture is gone! Breezy winds tearing through the dry brush! Relative humidity dropping into the void! Tuesday brings an inverted surface troff to hold the line! We burn on the edge of the line! Marginal fire weather! Marginal fire weather! Marginal fire weather! Marginal fire weather! Marginal fire weather! Marginal fire weather! Marginal fire weather! Marginal fire weather! Marginal fire weather!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 545 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
- Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days.
- Low to medium rain chances (<50%) this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
We're currently between two surface fronts; the most important one is the cold front now moving into Middle Tennessee.
This is mostly noticeable when looking at surface dewpoints and analyzed PWs.
The dewpoint at CKV is currently 49, as opposed to 64 at MQY.
This reinforcement of drier, cooler air will support cool nights, but warm afternoons, through the short-term with high pressure moving east across the Ohio Valley.
Dry, breezy conditions will result in marginal fire weather conditions for Monday afternoon, but an inverted surface trough is expected Tuesday which should mitigate RH concerns.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026
Continued stable weather is expected through Friday as much of the eastern CONUS is influenced by high pressure systems and persistent upper-level troughing.
We might see a shortwave Wed/thu week, but appears to be moisture deprived.
Regardless, we should experience gradual warming with best rain chances this weekend.
Medium-range guidance and ensembles all suggest Gulf moisture spreading northward into the Tennessee Valley, assuming the upper- level trough can lift northeastward toward Newfoundland opening the door for low pressure/moisture to move our way.