The Spark Takes Hold
Monday, October 5, 2026 · 12:14 PM
Watch and listen
Lyrics
Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days. Low to medium rain chances less than fifty percent this weekend. Clear skies over Middle Tennessee establishing high pressure like a tomb Temperatures creeping into the mid seventies to low eighties, a sunlit shroud before the decay A north breeze carving through lower relative humidity, hiding the dry doom Overnight lows from the upper forties to low fifties freezing the blood in our veins Relative humidity drops to the mid thirty percent range Wind gusts up to twenty miles per hour carry the scent of ash across the plain South of Interstate forty the parched earth waits for fire Where the soil bleeds dry and the spark takes hold Tuesday offers no salvation as highs creep back into the low to mid eighties High pressure anchors itself above us, locking out the clouds until we burn away We pray for a surface troff to drag Gulf moisture into the static atmosphere Desperate for rain to bust this relentless drought before the flames claim the trees South of Interstate forty Less than fifty percent chance The air turns to dust The spark takes hold The spark takes hold
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1202 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
- Dry weather expected through Friday with cool nights and warm days.
- Low to medium rain chances (<50%) this weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1106 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Clear skies and establishing high pressure makes for a gorgeous start to the work week here in Middle Tennessee.
Expect highs to be a bit warmer than yesterday, in the mid 70s to low 80s.
The north breeze and lower humidity should help it feel better than advertised.
Unfortunately, this has brought about some marginal fire weather concerns south of I-40, as RHs drop to the mid 30% range, with wind gusts up to 20 MPH. With how dry we are, even after the rain we saw, it's best to play it safe when it comes to fire today.
Overnight expect a crisp fall feeling, with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s and clear skies.
Tuesday will continue the warming pattern as highs creep into the low to mid 80s.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1106 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026
Highs will continue to warm into the upper 80s through the work week.
High pressure will keep us dry through the week, with the next low chance for rain on the weekend.
Guidance suggests a surface trough will bring in some Gulf moisture to Middle Tennessee, which will hopefully result in some decent rainfall.
Ideally we can get enough to help bust more of this drought, but we're unsure on specifics like amounts and exact locations at this time.