Socked In Mid 60s
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · 12:01 PM
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Low chance for strong storms to produce gusty winds across the Cumberland Plateau today. Aside from additional low rain chances across the Plateau Thursday, cooler and mostly dry conditions will persist into the weekend. Eleven twelve A.M.! Central Daylight Time! Middle Tennessee— Socked in! Low clouds hanging low! Mid-sixties on the thermometer! Inverted surface troff draped— Draped across the area! Twelve zulu sounding! Mid-level lapse rates— Falling off! Hail threat— Diminished! Tonight drops down— Upper-fifties! Low-sixties! Tomorrow west of the Plateau— Rebound to upper-seventies! Low-eighties! Plateau stays stuck— Low-seventies again! Scattered showers— Destabilization— Inhibited! EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER! NO HEATING! NO CAPE TO BURN! THE SURFACE TROFF DRAGS! THE SURFACE TROFF DRAGS! Cloud deck holding down the sky! Lapse rates dropping as time goes by! Plateau trapped while the rest turns dry! Socked in mid 60s! Socked in mid 60s! Eleven twelve A.M.! Inverted troff! Inhibited!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1112 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
- Low chance for strong storms to produce gusty winds across the Cumberland Plateau today
- Aside from additional low rain chances across the Plateau Thursday, cooler and mostly dry conditions will persist into the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1112 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
Middle TN is currently socked in with low clouds and temperatures in the mid-60s.
Showers and isolated storms across the Cumberland Plateau will continue through this afternoon and into tonight due to an inverted surface trough draped across the area.
With extensive low-level cloud cover, heating and destabilization will be inhibited.
There remains potential for some storms to develop strong wind gusts, but with the 12z sounding showing less impressive mid-level lapse rates, the hail threat has diminished.
Temperatures will drop to the upper-50s to low-60s tonight and rebound to the upper-70s to low-80s west of the Cumberland Plateau tomorrow.
Across the Cumberland Plateau, another day in the low-70s with scattered showers and storms is on tap.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1112 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
By the end of the week, a strong upper ridge will build north from the MS Valley as a deep upper low remains situated over the northeast CONUS.
This setup will usher in drier air and slightly warmer temperatures ranging from the low to mid-70s across the Cumberland Plateau to the low to mid-80s to the southwest.
We'll warm back to the upper 80s and low 90s by Tuesday with the pattern becoming more active by mid-week as the next FROPA impacts the region.