A Steady North Breeze
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · 5:41 AM
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Low chance for strong to severe storms on the Cumberland Plateau Wednesday. Gusty winds and hail are the main concerns. Aside from additional low rain chances on the Plateau Thursday, cooler and mostly dry conditions will persist into the weekend. Twenty-four hours ago we burned at nearly one hundred degrees Now the stratus filters in, brought low by a steady north breeze The deep upper low spins east through the grey A shortwave with jet maxima forcing the day Over Middle Tennessee the cold air descends Where the heat of the summer abruptly ends Surface soundings show an inverted V The atmospheric trap set for you and me Thirty knots of deep layer shear in the sky Cool air aloft makes the hail stones fly The prophecy speaks from the Cumberland peak The severe parameters are marginal and weak Yet the sky shall rupture and frozen ice fall We shiver under a steady north breeze Upper seventies to low eighties mark the decay As afternoon storms rise to shatter the day Inverted profiles drawing down the swift gust Turning the plateau's dry soil into dust Mid to low sixties as night settles in A quiet reprieve where the darkness begins The prophecy speaks from the Cumberland peak The severe parameters are marginal and weak Yet the sky shall rupture and frozen ice fall We shiver under a steady north breeze A steady north breeze Cold air aloft On the Cumberland Plateau We shiver under a steady north breeze
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 537 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
- Low chance for strong to severe storms on the Cumberland Plateau Wednesday.
Gusty winds and hail are the main concerns.
- Aside from additional low rain chances on the Plateau Thursday, cooler and mostly dry conditions will persist into the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
It is a very pleasant first night of official fall, and our much- needed cooldown couldn't have arrived at a better time.
Temperatures areawide are in the upper 60s with a steady, cool north breeze.
Low stratus clouds have filtered in behind the cold front and will remain in place tonight and through much of the day Wednesday.
Clouds and continued northerly winds will keep temperatures on the pleasant side Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s; a far cry from just 24 hours ago when it was nearly 100 degrees!
The deep upper low responsible for these cooler temperatures will continue to spin east Wednesday, passing a shortwave with an embedded jet maxima over Middle TN. This feature will provide a bit more forcing for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly across the Cumberland Plateau.
Severe parameters are marginal at best, but deep layer shear will be near 30 kts. Given the better forcing, afternoon destabilization will likely result in a few thunderstorms that could produce gusty winds as soundings show inverted-Vs at the surface.
Hail will also be possible in the strongest storms given such cool temperatures aloft.
Activity will wind down late Wednesday, and the rest of the night will be quiet with lows in the mid to low 60s.
Thursday will be pretty similar with cooler temperatures sticking around and low to medium rain chances hanging on to the Cumberland Plateau, though the severe threat is little to none.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
The low will spin off to the east and ridging will build in behind it, dropping rain chances to nearly 0%. On the bright side, the weather this weekend looks fantastic with continued afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s, low humidity, and overnight lows dropping into the low 50s.
That's just about cool enough for a light jacket!
Moving into next week, high pressure will continue to build in, inching the temperatures back up into the upper 80s to maybe low 90s for Nashville by Tuesday.
By Wednesday, though models are in some disagreement on strength, there is a general agreement that another deep low pressure system will develop and move over the Great Lakes.
This will bring rain and storm chances back into the forecast with another dip in temperatures.