Inverted Vs
Wednesday, September 23, 2026 · 12:21 AM
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Low chance for strong to severe storms on the Cumberland Plateau Wednesday. Gusty winds and hail are the main concerns. Aside from additional low rain chances on the Plateau Thursday, cooler and mostly dry conditions will persist into the weekend. Upper low spinning! Cumberland Plateau! Yesterday was near a hundred degrees Now the north wind knocking down the trees Low stratus clouds on a cool north breeze Upper low spinning east with ease Shortwave passing with a jet maxima Forcing the air through the atmosphere Thirty knots of deep layer shear Cumberland Plateau, the storm is near! Cool air aloft brings the hail down fast Yesterday's heat is a nightmare past Highs in the upper seventies now Forcing the sky to break its vow! Drop the temp from a hundred heat Feel the pressure on the plateau street Dry air beneath where the boundary freeze Soundings show inverted Vs! Inverted profile, surface is dry Downdraft crashing straight from the sky Mid-level moisture, thirty knot shear Severe parameters marginal here Hail falling cold while the heat retreats Sixty-degree lows on the quiet streets! THIRTY! GUSTY WINDS! INVERTED PROFILE AT THE SURFACE! COOL AIR ALOFT! CRASHING DOWN! Inverted Vs. Upper low spins east. Quiet tonight. Mid-sixties.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1218 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026
- Low chance for strong to severe storms on the Cumberland Plateau Wednesday.
Gusty winds and hail are the main concerns.
- Aside from additional low rain chances on the Plateau Thursday, cooler and mostly dry conditions will persist into the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
It is a very pleasant first night of official fall, and our much- needed cooldown couldn't have arrived at a better time.
Temperatures areawide are in the upper 60s with a steady, cool north breeze.
Low stratus clouds have filtered in behind the cold front and will remain in place tonight and through much of the day Wednesday.
Clouds and continued northerly winds will keep temperatures on the pleasant side Wednesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s; a far cry from just 24 hours ago when it was nearly 100 degrees!
The deep upper low responsible for these cooler temperatures will continue to spin east Wednesday, passing a shortwave with an embedded jet maxima over Middle TN. This feature will provide a bit more forcing for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, mainly across the Cumberland Plateau.
Severe parameters are marginal at best, but deep layer shear will be near 30 kts. Given the better forcing, afternoon destabilization will likely result in a few thunderstorms that could produce gusty winds as soundings show inverted-Vs at the surface.
Hail will also be possible in the strongest storms given such cool temperatures aloft.
Activity will wind down late Wednesday, and the rest of the night will be quiet with lows in the mid to low 60s.
Thursday will be pretty similar with cooler temperatures sticking around and low to medium rain chances hanging on to the Cumberland Plateau, though the severe threat is little to none.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
The low will spin off to the east and ridging will build in behind it, dropping rain chances to nearly 0%. On the bright side, the weather this weekend looks fantastic with continued afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s, low humidity, and overnight lows dropping into the low 50s.
That's just about cool enough for a light jacket!
Moving into next week, high pressure will continue to build in, inching the temperatures back up into the upper 80s to maybe low 90s for Nashville by Tuesday.
By Wednesday, though models are in some disagreement on strength, there is a general agreement that another deep low pressure system will develop and move over the Great Lakes.
This will bring rain and storm chances back into the forecast with another dip in temperatures.