A Month Of Dryness
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · 5:39 AM
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Low to medium rain and storm chances will impact mainly the Cumberland Plateau through Thursday, but severe weather is not expected. Much cooler temperatures will finally arrive with near normal temperatures the remainder of the week into the weekend. Convection is ongoing into the late evening. Just ahead of a slow-moving surface boundary. Radiation cooling takes place in the dark. Low visibilities expanding through the morning. The upper pattern amplifies over the region. Lingering storm chances along the Cumberland Plateau. A weeks-long heat wave fading into fog. Seven day quantitative precipitation forecast values show nothing. No meaningful rainfall for the mid state. We anticipate the sudden plunge. The reprieve we waited for. But the ground remains broken. The boundary stalls right over us. The surface boundary is locked in place The upper pattern starts to bend We pray for rain across the plateau A month of dryness with no end ONE MONTH OF DRYNESS! THE SEVEN DAY QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS ZERO! NO MEANINGFUL RAINFALL! IT STALLS OVER US! Seasonal norms... Minimal risk... A month of dryness... With no end.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 533 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
- Low to medium rain and storm chances will impact mainly the Cumberland Plateau through Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.
- Much cooler temperatures will finally arrive with near normal temperatures the remainder of the week into the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Convection is ongoing as we head into the late evening just ahead of a slow-moving surface boundary that will bring considerably cooler air to Middle Tennessee by tomorrow, thus bringing an end to a weeks-long heat wave that has already made this one of the warmest Septembers on record.
Rain and storm chances will linger tomorrow and Wednesday and even Thursday, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau, as the aforementioned surface boundary stalls over the region and the upper pattern further amplifies.
Overnight, we do expect areas of fog to develop as radiation cooling takes place, so we may have low visibilities to contend with in the morning in some areas.
Thankfully, temperatures across Middle Tennessee will finally plunge closer to seasonal norms in coming days, which is the reprieve we've all been anticipating.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Seasonal temperatures will last through the weekend, along with continued dry weather.
Although a few spots will enjoy some temporary relief from the worsening drought conditions in the near-term, 7-day QPF values don't provide much hope that we will enjoy meaningful rainfall anytime soon across the mid state.
Fortunately, the risk of any hazardous weather going forward looks to be minimal.
Thus, attention in coming days will likely shift to the lengthening dryness that has enveloped most of the mid state for the last month-plus.