Makes Its Home
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · 11:20 AM
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Low to medium rain and storm chances will impact areas on the Cumberland Plateau through Thursday, but severe weather is not expected. Much cooler temperatures will finally arrive with near normal temperatures the remainder of the week into the weekend. West of Interstate sixty-five! The clouds break, the air comes alive! Eroding from the southeast, clearing to the north, Showers from the west dragging moisture back and forth. National Blend of Models tried to push the heat high, But stratus locked the numbers under eighty-five sky! South of Interstate forty down to Tennessee Alabama line, Creeping up to ninety but we're running out of time. Quantitative precipitation under one inch bound, Ready to be swallowed by the thirsty, dry ground! Patchy fog on the Cumberland Plateau tonight! Lows dropping down in the mid-sixties light! The cold front stops! It refuses to move! Trapped in the valley, locked in the groove! Parched earth waiting for the cloud deck to break! Cooler air crashing for the dry ground's sake! Stalled out boundary locked inside the zone! Tennessee is where it makes its home! Low to mid-eighties for the rest of the week, No severe threat in the numbers that we seek. Soaking in the moisture, holding on the ridge, Crossing over autumn on a narrow front bridge. Clearing in the afternoon, keeping back the heat, Eighty-four maximum, feeling complete! STALLED! STALLED ON THE PLATEAU! SOAK IT UP! UNDER AN INCH! SOAK IT UP! Near normal. Remainder of the week. Makes its home. Fades out.
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1120 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
- Low to medium rain and storm chances will impact areas on the Cumberland Plateau through Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.
- Much cooler temperatures will finally arrive with near normal temperatures the remainder of the week into the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
Showers and thunderstorms are making their way into Middle Tennessee from the west this afternoon.
Stratus is slowly eroding from SE to NW this morning, but cloud cover from these showers and storms will be quick to replace it in some areas.
Some guidance has these showers and storms weakening in our NW counties, but it looks like they may make it further east than forecasted.
This will be helpful for some dry areas west of I-65, at least a little bit.
For the remainder of today, clouds will keep us a bit cooler than NBM was hoping, with highs in areas south of I-40 to along the TN/AL state line getting closer to 90 degrees and highs under the current stratus deck staying in the low to mid 80s.
We will see some clearing from clouds later in the afternoon, but we don't anticipate this being enough to warm the areas currently affected by stratus to the upper 80s.
Tonight, patchy fog will be a possibility along the Cumberland Plateau, with lows in the mid to low 60s.
We can expect to see continued rain chances east of I-65 as the front that brought us cooler temperatures stalls out and makes Tennessee its home for the next few days.
Rainfall totals are not a concern at this time, as we're expecting rain to fall over ground that is ready to soak it up. Some locally higher amounts and rain rates could be possible in thunderstorms, but overall QPF should stay below an inch for the next few days.
Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, so much cooler than what we've had the past few weeks and a bit closer to normal for this time of year.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
The synoptic pattern for the rest of the forecast period looks to be benign for Middle Tennessee.
After this short bout of rainfall, we will once again enter an overall dry pattern for the weekend.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s through the weekend, with lows sinking into the 50s (and even the upper 40s on the Cumberland Plateau!).
It may seem like autumn has finally arrived, but temperatures will warm once again into next work week back into the upper 80s and low 90s.
With no severe weather anticipated in the current pattern, the focus in the next few days will shift to the dry pattern continuing to evolve in Middle Tennessee.