Seasonal Norms
Tuesday, September 22, 2026 · 12:09 AM
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Updated at twelve zero one A.M. Central Daylight Time Tuesday September twenty-second twenty twenty-six. Patchy fog will develop through early Tuesday morning. Low to medium rain and storm chances will impact mainly the Cumberland Plateau through Thursday, but severe weather is not expected. Much cooler temperatures will finally arrive with near normal temperatures the remainder of the week into the weekend. Radiation cooling in the midnight gloom Patchy fog rising like a quiet tomb Weeks-long heat wave ending at last Middle Tennessee put it in the past Slow-moving surface boundary creeping in That is where the cold air will begin Upper pattern amplifying high and tight Cumberland Plateau holding rain tonight No severe weather coming down the line Just the long-awaited drop in temperature time! Break down the heat, tear down the storm! We finally plunge to seasonal norms! Break down the heat, tear down the storm! We finally plunge to seasonal norms! One of the warmest Septembers on record books Now the stalled front gives us cooler looks Thursday storm chances linger on the ridge Crossing over to relief on a foggy bridge Break down the heat, tear down the storm! We finally plunge to seasonal norms! Break down the heat, tear down the storm! We finally plunge to seasonal norms! Plunge to seasonal norms! The reprieve is here! Seasonal norms!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1201 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026
- Patchy fog will develop through early Tuesday morning.
- Low to medium rain and storm chances will impact mainly the Cumberland Plateau through Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.
- Much cooler temperatures will finally arrive with near normal temperatures the remainder of the week into the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Convection is ongoing as we head into the late evening just ahead of a slow-moving surface boundary that will bring considerably cooler air to Middle Tennessee by tomorrow, thus bringing an end to a weeks-long heat wave that has already made this one of the warmest Septembers on record.
Rain and storm chances will linger tomorrow and Wednesday and even Thursday, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau, as the aforementioned surface boundary stalls over the region and the upper pattern further amplifies.
Overnight, we do expect areas of fog to develop as radiation cooling takes place, so we may have low visibilities to contend with in the morning in some areas.
Thankfully, temperatures across Middle Tennessee will finally plunge closer to seasonal norms in coming days, which is the reprieve we've all been anticipating.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Seasonal temperatures will last through the weekend, along with continued dry weather.
Although a few spots will enjoy some temporary relief from the worsening drought conditions in the near-term, 7-day QPF values don't provide much hope that we will enjoy meaningful rainfall anytime soon across the mid state.
Fortunately, the risk of any hazardous weather going forward looks to be minimal.
Thus, attention in coming days will likely shift to the lengthening dryness that has enveloped most of the mid state for the last month-plus.