Finally Catch Our Breath
Monday, September 21, 2026 · 10:23 PM

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Evening convection is expected to diminish by midnight. Areas of fog will impact portions of Middle Tennessee during the overnight period. A significant decrease in temperatures is underway. Highs and lows for the remainder of the week and weekend will be much closer to seasonal norms. Low to medium rain and storm chances will impact mainly the Cumberland Plateau through Thursday, but severe weather is not expected. The slow-moving surface boundary creeps across the state! A weeks-long heat wave perishes under radiation cooling! Low visibility blinds the valley in the dead of night! The upper pattern amplifies over the Cumberland Plateau! SEVENTY DEGREES! SEVENTY DEGREES! SEVENTY DEGREES! BREAK THE WAVE! Lingering rain across the ridge! The cold front stalls and holds the line! After weeks of burning skies, Finally catch our breath! PLUNGE! PLUNGE CLOSER TO NORMAL! NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED! THE BOUNDARY IS LOCKED! SEVENTY DEGREES! SEVENTY DEGREES! SEVENTY DEGREES! STALL THE FRONT! Cumberland Plateau! The reprieve is here! Finally catch our breath! FINALLY CATCH OUR BREATH!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1015 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
- Evening convection is expected to diminish by midnight.
Areas of fog will impact portions of Middle Tennessee during the overnight period.
- A significant decrease in temperatures is underway.
Highs and lows for the remainder of the week and weekend will be much closer to seasonal norms.
- Low to medium rain and storm chances will impact mainly the Cumberland Plateau through Thursday, but severe weather is not expected.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Convection is ongoing as we head into the late evening just ahead of a slow-moving surface boundary that will bring considerably cooler air to Middle Tennessee by tomorrow, thus bringing an end to a weeks-long heat wave that has already made this one of the warmest Septembers on record.
Rain and storm chances will linger tomorrow and Wednesday and even Thursday, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau, as the aforementioned surface boundary stalls over the region and the upper pattern further amplifies.
Overnight, we do expect areas of fog to develop as radiation cooling takes place, so we may have low visibilities to contend with in the morning in some areas.
Thankfully, temperatures across Middle Tennessee will finally plunge closer to seasonal norms in coming days, which is the reprieve we've all been anticipating.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1015 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026
Seasonal temperatures will last through the weekend, along with continued dry weather.
Although a few spots will enjoy some temporary relief from the worsening drought conditions in the near-term, 7-day QPF values don't provide much hope that we will enjoy meaningful rainfall anytime soon across the mid state.
Fortunately, the risk of any hazardous weather going forward looks to be minimal.
Thus, attention in coming days will likely shift to the lengthening dryness that has enveloped most of the mid state for the last month-plus.