Since 1927
Monday, September 14, 2026 · 11:43 AM
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Heat Advisory is in effect Tuesday and Wednesday for most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau. Heat indices up to one hundred nine degrees are expected during the afternoon. Rain chances this week are very low and limited to the Plateau mid to late week. Rain chances increase Sunday and Monday. A gradual cool-down is forecast Sunday into early next week, but temperatures remain above-normal for the next several days. One, two, three, hit it! Yeah! Well, that upper troff is grazing us, just keeping things polite Northeast breeze at the surface trying to put up a fight Got dewpoints in the seventies, yeah, sticky and mean Slipping through Middle Tennessee like a big party scene! But hold onto your hats, folks, tomorrow's the show That deep-layer ridge is settling right down below! A light southwesterly breeze is coming into the mix We're turning up the dial for some mid-September tricks! Push it into the nineties, shoot for one hundred degrees! The ridge is directly over us, cooking the breeze! We're breaking ancient history, making heat waves heaven! Ninety-eight at B N A, hottest since 1927! Ah, look at that humidity mixing out in the sun Heat indices up to one hundred nine, we've only just begun! High pressure dominating the whole eastern side So grab your sunglasses, baby, take a ride! Rain chances near zero, nowhere left to run Just a sizzle on the Plateau under a crazy sun! Push it into the nineties, shoot for one hundred degrees! The ridge is directly over us, cooking the breeze! We're breaking ancient history, making heat waves heaven! Ninety-eight at B N A, hottest since 1927! Push it into the nineties, shoot for one hundred degrees! The ridge is directly over us, cooking the breeze! We're breaking ancient history, making heat waves heaven! Ninety-eight at B N A, hottest since 1927! Oh, nineteen twenty-seven! We're melting down, baby! See you next Sunday for the cool-down! Whoa!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1140 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
- Heat Advisory is in effect Tuesday and Wednesday for most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau.
Heat indices up to 109 degrees are expected during the afternoon.
- Rain chances this week are very low and limited to the Plateau mid to late week.
Rain chances increase Sunday and Monday.
- A gradual cool-down is forecast Sunday into early next week, but temperatures remain above-normal for the next several days.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
It's fairly hot outside today, but not as bad as it will be starting tomorrow.
Currently Middle Tennessee is being grazed by a upper trough and surface high just to our northeast.
This is leading to a northeasterly wind at most observations sites with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, though some places are still reporting dewpoints in the lower 70s.
For tomorrow, the deep-layer ridge just to our west will settle essentially right over our region with a transition to a light southwesterly breeze.
This scenario supports a warming of temperatures well into the 90s, perhaps to near 100 degrees in some places, tomorrow afternoon.
We could tie or break the record of 98 degrees at BNA tomorrow previously set back in 1927. Afternoon humidity will push heat indices well into the 100s most places.
Thus, a Heat Advisory is in effect.
Exact heat indices will vary spatially depending upon how dewpoints mix out during the afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Excessive heat will be the biggest weather concern for this week thanks to the broad ridge of high pressure dominating much of the eastern CONUS.
The worst of the heat will be Tuesday and Wednesday, but temperatures will remain well above-normal with rain & storm chances very low to near zero.
Only isolated showers or a storm are currently forecast across the higher terrain of the Plateau mid to late week and this is influenced by an upper- level low moving (west) off of the Atlantic toward the Southeast US. We'll have to wait until Sunday/Monday to see an improvement in temperatures and to get more viable rain chances which would be in association with an upper-level trough (mercifully) moving in from the west