Above Seasonal Norms
Monday, September 14, 2026 · 6:08 AM
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Heat Advisory is in effect Tuesday for most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau. Heat indices up to one hundred nine degrees Fahrenheit are expected during the afternoon. Rain chances this week are negligible. The next rain chances aren't expected until the weekend. We should start to see a gradual cool-down late next weekend and early the following week. Ten twenty-nine P.M. Central Daylight— Wait! Surface analysis shows a boundary stretching— Stretching down into West Tennessee! Houston County— Humphreys County— Along the Tennessee River, one hour out— Scattered convection drifting slow! No organization! Just enough lift to— Just enough lift to spark! Upper level high pressure starting tomorrow at— Exerting itself! Through Wednesday! Eliminating rain chances! Ten to twelve degrees above— One hundred five— One hundred nine— Heat index firing up— The ridge— It holds! HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER! THE RIDGE WILL NOT BREAK! TEN TO TWELVE DEGREES! ELIMINATE THE RAIN! ONE HUNDRED NINE DEGREES FAHRENHEIT! No moisture in the air! The ridge exerts control! Ten to twelve degrees above! We burn above seasonal norms! We burn above seasonal norms! Ten twenty-nine— Boundary collapsing— No relief— We burn above seasonal norms!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 607 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
- Heat Advisory is in effect Tuesday for most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau.
Heat indices up to 109F are expected during the afternoon.
- Rain chances this week are negligible.
The next rain chances aren't expected until the weekend.
- We should start to see a gradual cool-down late next weekend and early the following week.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Latest surface analysis shows a boundary stretching from New England southwestward into West TN and further.
Along this boundary, West TN has been dealing with scattered thunderstorms since this afternoon.
There isn't any organization with them, but the boundary is proving to be just enough lift to spark convection.
A couple of them are slowly drifting towards Houston and Humphreys counties along the TN River.
A few rumbles of thunder are possible over the next hour, but on the whole, these storms won't be of any great consequence.
Shy of some patchy overnight fog, this will be the extent of any activity associated with this boundary.
The big story of this forecast continues to be the heat.
Upper level high pressure will exert itself over the southeast United States starting tomorrow and stick around through at least Wednesday.
This will greatly reduce, if not eliminate, rain chances and keep afternoon highs running 10-12 degrees above seasonal norms.
A Heat Advisory is already posted for Tuesday for a good portion of Middle TN as Heat Index values will be in the 105-109 range during the afternoon.
This may be the case on Wednesday, as well, so an extension of the advisory may become necessary with future forecast packages.
LONG TERM
(Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026
Mid-range guidance has been persistent developing an upper level low east of Florida on Wednesday into Thursday and there is some question as to whether this will create any rain chances for us as it retrogrades to the west.
The ridge wants to hold on and be the main weather driver in our neck of the woods, but I can't rule out a stray storm on Thursday.
As we get into the weekend, models are very inconsistent in solution.
The GFS wants to create a very wet pattern by the end of the weekend and into the start of next week.
In sharp contrast, the Euro is much more dry and holds onto some ridging influences as we near the "start" of fall.
While there were some indications last night that we might start cooling off, the above normal temperatures may hold on even longer.