Southwesterly Breeze
Monday, September 14, 2026 · 12:21 PM
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Heat Advisory is in effect Tuesday and Wednesday for most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau. Heat indices up to one hundred nine degrees are expected during the afternoon. Rain chances this week are very low and limited to the Plateau mid to late week. Rain chances increase Sunday and Monday. A gradual cool-down is forecast Sunday into early next week, but temperatures remain above normal for the next several days. Upper troff grazes us, high to the east Dewpoints in the upper sixties feed the beast Light northeasterly wind holding the line Before the deep-layer monster takes its time Sliding out of the west, setting up shop The ridge takes over and the pressure won't drop Ninety-eight back in nineteen twenty-seven Now we're burning up beneath a cloudless heaven Dewpoints mixing out, heat index high Watch the mercury climb straight into the sky The ridge settles over, the sun starts to squeeze Burning Middle Tennessee down to its knees Mercury rising, there ain't any peace Blowing in hot with a southwesterly breeze Broad ridge dominating eastern land Zero rain chances, baking in the sand Plateau might see a stray shower mid-week While the rest of us suffer, blistering and bleak No relief coming till Sunday comes around Just heat advisory stomping on the ground The ridge settles over, the sun starts to squeeze Burning Middle Tennessee down to its knees Mercury rising, there ain't any peace Blowing in hot with a southwesterly breeze One hundred nine heat index in the shade The worst of the heat is being made Sunday brings a troff to break the squeeze Until then we burn in a southwesterly breeze
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1220 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
- Heat Advisory is in effect Tuesday and Wednesday for most of Middle Tennessee west of the Cumberland Plateau.
Heat indices up to 109 degrees are expected during the afternoon.
- Rain chances this week are very low and limited to the Plateau mid to late week.
Rain chances increase Sunday and Monday.
- A gradual cool-down is forecast Sunday into early next week, but temperatures remain above-normal for the next several days.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
It's fairly hot outside today, but not as bad as it will be starting tomorrow.
Currently Middle Tennessee is being grazed by a upper trough and surface high just to our northeast.
This is leading to a northeasterly wind at most observations sites with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, though some places are still reporting dewpoints in the lower 70s.
For tomorrow, the deep-layer ridge just to our west will settle essentially right over our region with a transition to a light southwesterly breeze.
This scenario supports a warming of temperatures well into the 90s, perhaps to near 100 degrees in some places, tomorrow afternoon.
We could tie or break the record of 98 degrees at BNA tomorrow previously set back in 1927. Afternoon humidity will push heat indices well into the 100s most places.
Thus, a Heat Advisory is in effect.
Exact heat indices will vary spatially depending upon how dewpoints mix out during the afternoon.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026
Excessive heat will be the biggest weather concern for this week thanks to the broad ridge of high pressure dominating much of the eastern CONUS.
The worst of the heat will be Tuesday and Wednesday, but temperatures will remain well above-normal with rain & storm chances very low to near zero.
Only isolated showers or a storm are currently forecast across the higher terrain of the Plateau mid to late week and this is influenced by an upper- level low moving (west) off of the Atlantic toward the Southeast US. We'll have to wait until Sunday/Monday to see an improvement in temperatures and to get more viable rain chances which would be in association with an upper-level trough (mercifully) moving in from the west