Into The Nineties
Friday, September 11, 2026 · 10:31 PM
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Medium to high rain and storm chances through Saturday afternoon. Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures forecast to remain well above-normal next week with highs into the nineties most days. Heat index values in the one hundreds are possible mid week, mainly for areas west of the Plateau. Yeah! Shake off that rain, darling! The main event is coming in! Upper-level low just hanging out off to our west tonight We had thirty knots of shear keeping the spark alive Weak surface front rolling right down the line You know I like it when the instability aligns, oh yeah! Fading in the evening, but tomorrow is a brand new show Eastern half is gonna feel the heavy rainfall blow! Drier air is coming from the west this afternoon Clear out the storm clouds, make a little room! Whoa-oh! Feel that pressure start to bloom! Sunday is hot and dry, the ridge takes over tonight! We are turning up the heat, shining way too bright! Catch me if you can, we are stepping into the nineties! Yeah, into the nineties! Synoptic ridging dominating all week long, babe No meaningful rainfall coming down to save the day Middle of the week gonna push those numbers high One hundred heat index looking straight in your eye, that is right! Moderate to major risk, we own this town! Drier air is coming from the west this afternoon Clear out the storm clouds, make a little room! Whoa-oh! Feel that pressure start to bloom! Sunday is hot and dry, the ridge takes over tonight! We are turning up the heat, shining way too bright! Catch me if you can, we are stepping into the nineties! Yeah, into the nineties! Yeah! One hundred on the heat index, baby! West of the Plateau! Stepping into the nineties! The party has just begun!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
- Medium to high rain and storm chances through Saturday afternoon.
Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
- Temperatures forecast to remain well above-normal next week with highs into the 90s most days.
Heat index values in the 100s are possible mid week, mainly for areas west of the Plateau.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
A lingering upper-level low is still just off to our west tonight.
This is situated near a corridor of favorable moisture for continued showers and a few storms currently.
Instability has really dropped off this evening, though, so activity is fading off across Middle Tennessee.
We had a few stronger storms earlier in the afternoon with ~30 kts shear in place.
Regardless, the system aloft coincides with a weak surface front and low pressure that will gradually move east tonight into tomorrow.
We'll get another round of showers and storms as a result, best chances will translate to the eastern half of the area tomorrow with drier air moving in from the west during the afternoon.
Sunday will be hot and dry with ridging quickly moving in from the west.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Unfortunately synoptic ridging will dominate the region for much of the long-term forecast period.
This will support another stretch of temperatures running well above-normal with little in the way of meaningful rainfall in the forecast.
The worst of the heat looks to be mid next week with highs well into the 90s west of the Plateau.
Humidity values will support heat index values into the 100s during the afternoon which coincides with moderate to major heat risk levels.
Guidance shows a decrease in heat late next week, but that remains several days off.