30 Knots Of Shear
Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 12:25 AM
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Medium to high rain and storm chances through Saturday afternoon. Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures forecast to remain well above-normal next week with highs into the nineties most days. Heat index values in the one hundreds are possible mid week, mainly for areas west of the Plateau. Upper-level low lingering west! Favorable moisture corridor! Instability dropping off tonight! Activity fading across Middle Tennessee! Weak surface front! Low pressure tracking east! Round two coming by morning light! Eastern half holds the storm line! Shift the moisture! Clear the sky! Weak front moving east! 30 knots of shear! Weak front moving east! 30 knots of shear! Drier air pushing from the west! Afternoon sweep! Sunday brings the ridge! Hot and dry! Synoptic setup taking control! Thirty knots! Surface front! Shift east! Drier air! Command the sky! Weak front moving east! 30 knots of shear! Weak front moving east! 30 knots of shear! High pressure ridging! Hot and dry! 30 knots of shear!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1221 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
- Medium to high rain and storm chances through Saturday afternoon.
Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
- Temperatures forecast to remain well above-normal next week with highs into the 90s most days.
Heat index values in the 100s are possible mid week, mainly for areas west of the Plateau.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday Night) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
A lingering upper-level low is still just off to our west tonight.
This is situated near a corridor of favorable moisture for continued showers and a few storms currently.
Instability has really dropped off this evening, though, so activity is fading off across Middle Tennessee.
We had a few stronger storms earlier in the afternoon with ~30 kts shear in place.
Regardless, the system aloft coincides with a weak surface front and low pressure that will gradually move east tonight into tomorrow.
We'll get another round of showers and storms as a result, best chances will translate to the eastern half of the area tomorrow with drier air moving in from the west during the afternoon.
Sunday will be hot and dry with ridging quickly moving in from the west.
LONG TERM
(Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
Unfortunately synoptic ridging will dominate the region for much of the long-term forecast period.
This will support another stretch of temperatures running well above-normal with little in the way of meaningful rainfall in the forecast.
The worst of the heat looks to be mid next week with highs well into the 90s west of the Plateau.
Humidity values will support heat index values into the 100s during the afternoon which coincides with moderate to major heat risk levels.
Guidance shows a decrease in heat late next week, but that remains several days off.