Ride The Flash Flood
Friday, September 11, 2026 · 6:41 PM
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Key messages. Updated at six thirty-four P.M. Central Daylight Time, Friday, September eleventh, twenty twenty-six. Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low to mid nineties for most areas through the next seven days. There are medium to high chances for rain and storms through Saturday. Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. It appears that we can finally look forward to some relief from the heat by next weekend. A weak surface boundary stretched across Tennessee tonight Unstable, humid air mass ready for a fight Precipitable water on the twelve zulu sound One point nine six inches ready to pound Near the ninetieth percentile, the daily max is near Modest five point zero lapse rate, nothing left to fear Convection is exploding, it's a matter of time I'm soaking in the chaos and I'm feeling so fine Turn up the humidity and let the boundary break Take everything the atmosphere is fixing to make Intense rainfall rates coming down on the street Baby, come on and ride the flash flood Isolated torrents pounding hard on the ground Best chance for rain before the weekend turns around Drier air fills in by Sunday morning at dawn Leaving us to sizzle when the water is gone Near the ninetieth percentile, the daily max is near Modest five point zero lapse rate, nothing left to fear Convection is exploding, it's a matter of time I'm soaking in the chaos and I'm feeling so fine Turn up the humidity and let the boundary break Take everything the atmosphere is fixing to make Intense rainfall rates coming down on the street Baby, come on and ride the flash flood Yeah, before the dry spell takes it all We're standing right here watching the sky fall Ride the flash flood Ride the flash flood
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 634 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
- Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low to mid 90s for most areas through the next seven days.
- There are medium to high chances for rain and storms through Saturday.
Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
- It appears that we can finally look forward to some relief from the heat by next weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
A weak surface boundary is stretched across Middle Tennessee today, and with an unstable and very humid air mass in place, it's only a matter of time before convection starts to fire up given the continued above-normal temperatures.
Precipitable Water on the 12Z sounding from OHX stands at 1.96", which is well above the 90th percentile for this date and is very close to the daily max value.
So any storms that develop will be capable of producing intense rainfall rates, and localized flash-flooding is definitely a possibility in isolated areas.
Otherwise, despite the instability, the 700-500 lapse rate is a very modest 5.0 C/km, so the potential for severe storm development is quite limited.
Today through tomorrow is the best opportunity for meaningful rainfall for the foreseeable future.
After tomorrow, drier air will fill in and most of us will be left with another dry spell from Sunday onward.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
While most of next week looks to be rain-free, temperatures look to remain above seasonal norms for at least the next 7 days.
And while we should be able to avoid any heat advisories, we can still expect heat indices to max out in the low 100s in many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau from now through next Thursday.
After that, low rain chances will emerge, and the additional cloud cover should start to push temperatures down somewhat.
In fact, the 07Z NBM suggests that by next weekend, we should be much closer to seasonal norms, and maybe, possibly, we'll be treated to our first bonafide autumn cold front just in time for the equinox.