1.96 Inches
Friday, September 11, 2026 · 12:20 PM
Watch and listen
Lyrics
Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low to mid nineties for most areas through the next seven days. There are medium to high chances for rain and storms through Saturday. Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. It appears that we can finally look forward to some relief from the heat by next weekend. A weak surface boundary is stretched across Middle Tennessee today. The twelve zulu sounding from Nashville records precipitable water at one point nine six inches. Well above the ninetieth percentile for this date. Very close to the daily maximum value. Unstable air mass heavy on my chest The humid atmosphere refuses to rest Lapse rate seven hundred to five hundred millibar A modest five degrees Celsius per kilometer from afar Intense rainfall rates loading the clouds Localized flash flooding wrapping the crowds Only a matter of time before convection fires Feeding on the heat of our desperate desires Water vapor drowning out the sky Sweat on the surface as the heat stays high Drenching the ground where the boundary flinches We are holding one point nine six inches ONE POINT NINE SIX INCHES! NEAR THE DAILY MAXIMUM! LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY! THERE IS NOWHERE FOR THIS WATER TO GO! Drier air fills in by Sunday... Most of us left with another dry spell... No relief until next weekend...
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1214 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
- Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low to mid 90s for most areas through the next seven days.
- There are medium to high chances for rain and storms through Saturday.
Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
- It appears that we can finally look forward to some relief from the heat by next weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
A weak surface boundary is stretched across Middle Tennessee today, and with an unstable and very humid air mass in place, it's only a matter of time before convection starts to fire up given the continued above-normal temperatures.
Precipitable Water on the 12Z sounding from OHX stands at 1.96", which is well above the 90th percentile for this date and is very close to the daily max value.
So any storms that develop will be capable of producing intense rainfall rates, and localized flash-flooding is definitely a possibility in isolated areas.
Otherwise, despite the instability, the 700-500 lapse rate is a very modest 5.0 C/km, so the potential for severe storm development is quite limited.
Today through tomorrow is the best opportunity for meaningful rainfall for the foreseeable future.
After tomorrow, drier air will fill in and most of us will be left with another dry spell from Sunday onward.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
While most of next week looks to be rain-free, temperatures look to remain above seasonal norms for at least the next 7 days.
And while we should be able to avoid any heat advisories, we can still expect heat indices to max out in the low 100s in many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau from now through next Thursday.
After that, low rain chances will emerge, and the additional cloud cover should start to push temperatures down somewhat.
In fact, the 07Z NBM suggests that by next weekend, we should be much closer to seasonal norms, and maybe, possibly, we'll be treated to our first bonafide autumn cold front just in time for the equinox.