Locally Heavy Rainfall
Friday, September 11, 2026 · 10:38 AM
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Updated at ten twenty-two A.M. Central Daylight Time Friday September eleventh twenty twenty-six. Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low to mid nineties for most areas through the next seven days. There are medium to high chances for rain and storms through Saturday. Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. It appears that we can finally look forward to some relief from the heat by next weekend. Ten twenty-two! Twelve zulu sounding! Middle Tennessee! Weak surface boundary stretched across the state Humid air mass sitting heavy, sealing up our fate Sounding from the Nashville office pulling up the score One point nine six inches, water pouring at the door Ninetieth percentile pushing near the daily max Atmosphere is loaded, no time to relax Convection firing up under low to mid nineties heat Rhythmic pulses hitting on the pavement in the street Seven hundred to five hundred millibar space Lapse rate five point zero keeping pace Limited severe, but the deluge is real Flash flood warning is the pain that we feel! Weak surface boundary locked in the heat! Heavy moisture beneath our feet! Water column bursting wide! Locally heavy rainfall! Short term window closing when tomorrow comes around Drier air is filling in and soaking up the ground Sunday starts a dry spell running all week long Heat index in low one hundreds singing its own song West of Cumberland Plateau, sweating in the shade Waiting for the autumn cold front that has been delayed BURST! One point nine six! Water in the column! Isolated flash floods! No relief till the equinox! Saturday chance! Best chance for rain! Drier air filling in! Locally heavy rainfall!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
- Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low to mid 90s for most areas through the next seven days.
- There are medium to high chances for rain and storms through Saturday.
Strongest storms may produce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
- It appears that we can finally look forward to some relief from the heat by next weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
A weak surface boundary is stretched across Middle Tennessee today, and with an unstable and very humid air mass in place, it's only a matter of time before convection starts to fire up given the continued above-normal temperatures.
Precipitable Water on the 12Z sounding from OHX stands at 1.96", which is well above the 90th percentile for this date and is very close to the daily max value.
So any storms that develop will be capable of producing intense rainfall rates, and localized flash-flooding is definitely a possibility in isolated areas.
Otherwise, despite the instability, the 700-500 lapse rate is a very modest 5.0 C/km, so the potential for severe storm development is quite limited.
Today through tomorrow is the best opportunity for meaningful rainfall for the foreseeable future.
After tomorrow, drier air will fill in and most of us will be left with another dry spell from Sunday onward.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1022 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026
While most of next week looks to be rain-free, temperatures look to remain above seasonal norms for at least the next 7 days.
And while we should be able to avoid any heat advisories, we can still expect heat indices to max out in the low 100s in many areas west of the Cumberland Plateau from now through next Thursday.
After that, low rain chances will emerge, and the additional cloud cover should start to push temperatures down somewhat.
In fact, the 07Z NBM suggests that by next weekend, we should be much closer to seasonal norms, and maybe, possibly, we'll be treated to our first bonafide autumn cold front just in time for the equinox.