Training Storms Tonight
Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 6:15 AM
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Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low nineties for most areas for the next seven days. A wetter pattern kicks off starting Thursday evening and continues through the weekend. Low chance for gusty winds with any stronger thunderstorms along with heavy rain. Sun's hitting hard over Middle Tennessee One hundred five heat index sounds good to me Stout midlevel ridge locked in real tight Remnants of that mesoscale system died last night Got two thousand Joules per kilogram ripe in the air Cold front creeping down but I don't even care Between two P.M. and seven P.M. The sky's gonna break and do it all again Moist sounding profile, atmosphere aligned I'm smiling real big at the bottom of the line Stuck along Interstate forty, let the heat wave bite Sixty percent probability of rain feeling right Let that east-west boundary ignite Yeah we got training storms tonight Stalled on the highway, hot and muggy side Riding this ridge for a hell of a ride Localized flooding down in the street I ain't looking for no temporary relief Highs in the low nineties for seven more days I'm strutting right through this early fall blaze Between two P.M. and seven P.M. The sky's gonna break and do it all again Moist sounding profile, atmosphere aligned I'm smiling real big at the bottom of the line Stuck along Interstate forty, let the heat wave bite Sixty percent probability of rain feeling right Let that east-west boundary ignite Yeah we got training storms tonight Keep the ridge coming! Interstate forty! Training storms tonight! Yeah!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 611 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
- Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low 90s for most areas for the next seven days.
- A wetter pattern kicks off starting Thursday evening and continues through the weekend.
- Low chance for gusty winds with any stronger thunderstorms along with heavy rain.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1012 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
Remnants of an MCS are still lingering around the TN River, but expect this to continue falling apart in the overnight hours.
Another hot day is on tap Thursday afternoon with heat indices in the triple digits.
This is due to a stout midlevel ridge centered over the southeast CONUS.
There are a few locations that may touch 105 heat index in the afternoon, but it's not looking widespread enough for another Heat Advisory.
What barely qualifies as a cold front will approach Middle TN Thursday afternoon, bringing a swath of showers and thunderstorms along with it. The better kinematic support is displaced off to the northwest but with forecast soundings suggesting a moist profile and 2000+ J/kg CAPE, would not rule out a few stronger thunderstorms between about 2PM and 7PM.
Will also note the storm motions along the east-west oriented boundary may create some training storms and resultant localized flooding issues.
Expect this same front to stall out along the I-40 corridor on Friday, trapping Middle TN on the hot and muggy side of the boundary.
Again, temperatures remain well above normal in the low/mid 90s despite 60+% PoPs.
Areas that do receive rain on Friday should see some temporary relief from the heat, but this isn't a widespread washout by any means.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1012 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
Forecast surface analyses depict the aforementioned boundary lifting north as a warm front on Saturday, further contributing to this early fall heat wave.
Saturday looks like the wettest day of the forecast period, particularly in the afternoon.
This is mainly due to influences from shortwave features; there is very little synoptic support in this pattern.
Nevertheless, we'll have PoPs above 50% through Sunday, along with grossly above normal temperatures in the 90s.
Unfortunately, no clear relief is in sight.
LREF mean 500 mb heights place another highly amplified midlevel ridge over the southeastern CONUS again next week, nearing the upper end of climatology for mid September.