2000 Joules Of Cape
Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 12:19 AM
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Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low nineties for most areas for the next seven days. A wetter pattern kicks off starting Thursday evening and continues through the weekend. REMNANTS OF THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DYING IN THE OVERNIGHT DARK! THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE IS STOUT AND UNYIELDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST! THURSDAY AFTERNOON BURNS WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES! SOME LOCATIONS TOUCH ONE HUNDRED FIVE IN THE HEAT! WHAT BARELY QUALIFIES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MIDDLE TENNESSEE! TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM TWO P.M. TO SEVEN P.M.! LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE MOIST PROFILE! Kinematic support is displaced to the northwest! Shedding temporary relief that never lasts! Stalled along Interstate forty, trapped on the muggy side! We're burning up beneath the ridge! Soak the sky in sixty percent rain, Break the ceiling of the early fall strain! We rise beneath the heavy air, With 2000 Joules of cape! FRIDAY STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE INTERSTATE FORTY CORRIDOR! TRAPPED ON THE HOT AND MUGGY SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY! NO CLEAR RELIEF IN SIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SATURDAY! HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FIVE HUNDRED MILLIBAR HEIGHTS AGAIN NEXT WEEK! NEAR THE UPPER END OF CLIMATOLOGY! WE ARE TRAPPED IN THE EARLY FALL HEAT WAVE! Shortwave features moving through the flow... Very little synoptic support to save us now... Temporary relief from a passing storm cell... Then the southeastern ridge takes hold again... Soak the sky in sixty percent rain, Break the ceiling of the early fall strain! We rise beneath the heavy air, With 2000 Joules of cape! Near the upper end of climatology! No clear relief in sight! 2000 Joules of cape!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1216 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
- Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low 90s for most areas for the next seven days.
- A wetter pattern kicks off starting Thursday evening and continues through the weekend.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1012 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
Remnants of an MCS are still lingering around the TN River, but expect this to continue falling apart in the overnight hours.
Another hot day is on tap Thursday afternoon with heat indices in the triple digits.
This is due to a stout midlevel ridge centered over the southeast CONUS.
There are a few locations that may touch 105 heat index in the afternoon, but it's not looking widespread enough for another Heat Advisory.
What barely qualifies as a cold front will approach Middle TN Thursday afternoon, bringing a swath of showers and thunderstorms along with it. The better kinematic support is displaced off to the northwest but with forecast soundings suggesting a moist profile and 2000+ J/kg CAPE, would not rule out a few stronger thunderstorms between about 2PM and 7PM.
Will also note the storm motions along the east-west oriented boundary may create some training storms and resultant localized flooding issues.
Expect this same front to stall out along the I-40 corridor on Friday, trapping Middle TN on the hot and muggy side of the boundary.
Again, temperatures remain well above normal in the low/mid 90s despite 60+% PoPs.
Areas that do receive rain on Friday should see some temporary relief from the heat, but this isn't a widespread washout by any means.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1012 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
Forecast surface analyses depict the aforementioned boundary lifting north as a warm front on Saturday, further contributing to this early fall heat wave.
Saturday looks like the wettest day of the forecast period, particularly in the afternoon.
This is mainly due to influences from shortwave features; there is very little synoptic support in this pattern.
Nevertheless, we'll have PoPs above 50% through Sunday, along with grossly above normal temperatures in the 90s.
Unfortunately, no clear relief is in sight.
LREF mean 500 mb heights place another highly amplified midlevel ridge over the southeastern CONUS again next week, nearing the upper end of climatology for mid September.