A Muggy Unsettled Regime
Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 11:30 AM
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Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low nineties for most areas through the next seven days. Chances for scattered showers and storms will increase through the next couple of days with high rain chances across the area Saturday. Low chance for a few storms with strong gusty winds and brief flash flooding today through Saturday. Remnants of northern storms drift through the morning sky A weak boundary drapes along the Ohio Valley Two kilojoules per kilogram of cape waiting in the heat From two P.M. to seven P.M. the air begins to boil The muggy heat pushes heat index values past one hundred Downpours gather over the northwest half of Middle Tennessee Shortwave disturbances ripple across the stalled boundary Precipitable water values staying dangerously high The front dips south from the Ohio Valley Holding the moisture down over the valley floor Heavy downpours collapse upon the pavement We are trapped in a muggy unsettled regime Trapped in a muggy unsettled regime! Trapped in a muggy unsettled regime! Trapped in a muggy unsettled regime! Trapped in a muggy unsettled regime!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1130 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
- Above-normal temperatures will continue with highs in the low 90s for most areas through the next seven days.
- Chances for scattered showers and storms will increase through the next couple of days with high rain chances across the area Saturday.
- Low chance for a few storms with strong gusty winds and brief flash flooding today through Saturday.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Northern sections experienced a few showers this morning with remnants of storms that came from the northwest overnight.
Another day of hot and humid conditions will help kick off new showers and scattered storms this afternoon and evening.
This activity will occur mostly over the northwest half of our area as a weak front drapes along the Ohio Valley.
There will be enough cape (around 2 kJ/kg) to make a few strong to marginally severe storms from 2 PM to 7 PM. Local gusty winds and heavy downpours with brief flooding will be the main concerns.
Otherwise, temps will reach the lower 90s for most areas, except upper 80s Plateau.
Muggy conditions will push heat index values over 100, but mostly shy of Heat Advisory levels.
The front from the Ohio Valley will dip into the Mid State and stall out on Friday, trapping Middle TN in a muggy, unsettled regime.
The boundary along with mid level shortwave disturbances will bring increasing coverage of showers and storms, especially for Saturday.
The increased cloudiness and rain coverage will keep temperatures from being excessively hot, but it will still be very warm and humid.
Enough diurnal instability will be present for isolated strong storm potential, but parameters like shear and mid level lapse rates look unimpressive for any organized severe storm threat.
Precipitable water values will stay high through Saturday, so brief, local flooding will be possible.
LONG TERM
(Saturday Night through next Thursday) Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
After Saturday, rain chances will drop off with generally low chances for scattered showers and storms in the afternoon and early evening hours each day next week.
Models show a strong mid level ridge building up again.
This will pump up the heat with some areas reaching middle 90s again Tuesday and Wednesday.
Models are showing signs of relief by next weekend with potential for a front dropping temps down toward normal levels.
There is still a wide spread of solutions, but probabilities are trending toward 80s for highs.