Breakdown Of The Ridge
Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · 6:42 PM
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Major to extreme heat risk this week with heat index values in the triple digits. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all counties through Friday. Rain chances are low through next week. The morning sounding from the Nashville office shows a moist, unstable air mass in place. High pressure is centered almost directly on top of Middle Tennessee, at the surface and aloft. Widespread subsidence continues to lock us down. Rain chances stay close to zero. Today and tomorrow are the hottest days. We are waiting for the flow to shift. The atmospheric lid will not unlock! Energy building beneath the cap! Temperatures back down a single degree at a time! We stay trapped above seasonal norms! No active weather systems to clear the sky! Diurnally driven convection by Saturday night! We wait for northwest flow aloft! We pray for the breakdown of the ridge! BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE! BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE! BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE! BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 623 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
- Major to extreme heat risk this week with heat index values in the triple digits.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all counties through Friday.
- Rain chances are low through next week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
The morning sounding from OHX actually shows a moist, unstable air mass in place, but high pressure is centered almost directly on top of Middle Tennessee both at the surface and aloft.
So the presence of widespread subsidence continues to keep rain chances out of the forecast.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of Middle Tennessee through the end of the week.
Today and tomorrow look to be the hottest days, then we'll start to back off after that, gradually, quite literally a degree at a time.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
Rain chances will stay close to zero for the remainder of the week, with low rain chances emerging this weekend and perhaps into early next week.
We aren't expecting any active weather systems, per se, but the breakdown of the existing high pressure ridge and the development of a northwest flow aloft should allow for some diurnally-driven convection by Saturday.
The Heat Advisory may need to be extended through Saturday, but after that, temperatures look to back down just enough to keep us below advisory criteria, even though temperatures will still remain above seasonal norms through the 7-day forecast period.