Stay At Zero
Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · 6:22 PM
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A Heat Advisory is in effect for all counties through Friday. Major to extreme heat risk this week with heat index values in the triple digits. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the hottest days of the week. Low rain chances return this weekend into early next week. Heavy air over Middle Tennessee. The soundings show the moisture locked below. The morning sounding from the Nashville office... shows a moist, unstable air mass in place... but high pressure is centered almost directly on top of us... both at the surface and aloft... widespread subsidence... crushing every cloud... We are suffocating under the ridge The moisture has nowhere to run A degree at a time, we wait for the break Underneath a motionless sun No storm can rise against this lid The atmosphere is sealed shut The dome is locked across the state No relief coming through the night We wait for the breakdown of the ridge As the sky burns thick and white High pressure sits directly overhead The heat index climbs through the floor We bleed beneath this heavy sky And rain chances stay at zero STAY CLOSE TO ZERO! TRIPLE DIGITS! RAIN CHANCES STAY AT ZERO! Gradually... Quite literally... A degree at a time... Zero.
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 621 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all counties through Friday.
- Major to extreme heat risk this week with heat index values in the triple digits.
Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the hottest days of the week.
- Low rain chances return this weekend into early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
The morning sounding from OHX actually shows a moist, unstable air mass in place, but high pressure is centered almost directly on top of Middle Tennessee both at the surface and aloft.
So the presence of widespread subsidence continues to keep rain chances out of the forecast.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of Middle Tennessee through the end of the week.
Today and tomorrow look to be the hottest days, then we'll start to back off after that, gradually, quite literally a degree at a time.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
Rain chances will stay close to zero for the remainder of the week, with low rain chances emerging this weekend and perhaps into early next week.
We aren't expecting any active weather systems, per se, but the breakdown of the existing high pressure ridge and the development of a northwest flow aloft should allow for some diurnally-driven convection by Saturday.
The Heat Advisory may need to be extended through Saturday, but after that, temperatures look to back down just enough to keep us below advisory criteria, even though temperatures will still remain above seasonal norms through the 7-day forecast period.