Widespread Subsidence
Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · 12:17 PM
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A Heat Advisory is in effect for all counties through Friday. Major to extreme heat risk this week with heat index values in the triple digits. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the hottest days of the week. Low rain chances return this weekend into early next week. Check the morning sounding out of Oscar Hotel X-ray Moist, unstable air mass sittin' here to stay Got the surface high locked right over Middle Tennessee An upper high to match it, honey, just for you and me Zero percent chance of rain to cool your skin I like it hot, let the real show begin Subsidence squashing every storm in sight I strut through the swelter, breakin' through the night There ain't no shade when the ridge is strong We're gonna crank the heat up all week long We got the fuel trapped in the atmosphere The pressure's heavy and the sky is clear Yeah, you're gonna bake while the big dome grins Widespread subsidence always wins! Lookin' ahead to Thursday, it's a boiling pot Wednesday and tomorrow are the hottest we got By Saturday morning maybe northwest flow Breaks down the ridge real nice and slow Diurnally-driven convection on the rise But right now the sun is burnin' out your eyes Subsidence squashing every storm in sight I strut through the swelter, breakin' through the night There ain't no shade when the ridge is strong We're gonna crank the heat up all week long We got the fuel trapped in the atmosphere The pressure's heavy and the sky is clear Yeah, you're gonna bake while the big dome grins Widespread subsidence always wins! Yeah, widespread subsidence! Steamin' in the triple digits, baby! Not a drop of rain to save ya! Sinking air everywhere!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1215 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all counties through Friday.
- Major to extreme heat risk this week with heat index values in the triple digits.
Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the hottest days of the week.
- Low rain chances return this weekend into early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
The morning sounding from OHX actually shows a moist, unstable air mass in place, but high pressure is centered almost directly on top of Middle Tennessee both at the surface and aloft.
So the presence of widespread subsidence continues to keep rain chances out of the forecast.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of Middle Tennessee through the end of the week.
Today and tomorrow look to be the hottest days, then we'll start to back off after that, gradually, quite literally a degree at a time.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
Rain chances will stay close to zero for the remainder of the week, with low rain chances emerging this weekend and perhaps into early next week.
We aren't expecting any active weather systems, per se, but the breakdown of the existing high pressure ridge and the development of a northwest flow aloft should allow for some diurnally-driven convection by Saturday.
The Heat Advisory may need to be extended through Saturday, but after that, temperatures look to back down just enough to keep us below advisory criteria, even though temperatures will still remain above seasonal norms through the 7-day forecast period.