Degree At A Time
Wednesday, September 2, 2026 · 10:31 AM
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Updated at ten twenty A.M. Central Daylight Time Wednesday September second twenty twenty-six. A Heat Advisory is in effect for all counties through Friday. Major to extreme heat risk this week with heat index values in the triple digits. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the hottest days of the week. Low rain chances return this weekend into early next week. Ten twenty A.M. sounding from— The Nashville office shows— Moist air mass trapped at the surface but— High pressure centered directly on— Top of Middle Tennessee! Zero point zero inches of rain at— Subsidence crushing every cloud— Wednesday at twelve zulu— Thursday peak heat index— Triple digits locked in place! Can't trigger convection when the lid— Degree by degree we— Quite literally a degree at— The ridge won't yield until— WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE! CENTERED ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE! THE CAP WILL NOT BREAK! STIFLING ATMOSPHERE! WE BURN IN PLACE! Unstable column with nowhere to go! Heat advisory locked through Friday night! We back off slow, degree at a time! Degree at a time! Degrees back off— Degree at a time!
The forecast discussion
NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1020 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all counties through Friday.
- Major to extreme heat risk this week with heat index values in the triple digits.
Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be the hottest days of the week.
- Low rain chances return this weekend into early next week.
SHORT TERM
(Rest of today through Thursday) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
The morning sounding from OHX actually shows a moist, unstable air mass in place, but high pressure is centered almost directly on top of Middle Tennessee both at the surface and aloft.
So the presence of widespread subsidence continues to keep rain chances out of the forecast.
A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of Middle Tennessee through the end of the week.
Today and tomorrow look to be the hottest days, then we'll start to back off after that, gradually, quite literally a degree at a time.
LONG TERM
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026
Rain chances will stay close to zero for the remainder of the week, with low rain chances emerging this weekend and perhaps into early next week.
We aren't expecting any active weather systems, per se, but the breakdown of the existing high pressure ridge and the development of a northwest flow aloft should allow for some diurnally-driven convection by Saturday.
The Heat Advisory may need to be extended through Saturday, but after that, temperatures look to back down just enough to keep us below advisory criteria, even though temperatures will still remain above seasonal norms through the 7-day forecast period.