Under The Southerly Flow
Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 12:08 AM
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Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday late morning into Thursday. Currently no severe weather expected, but watch for gusty winds. Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms. Hot and dry next week with highs in the low to mid nineties. The surface high slides northeast! The humidity is returning! Dew points pushing into the upper sixties! Pushing into the mid seventies! The moisture creeps back in! A shortwave spins off the Four Corners ridge! Southerly flow ripping through the Tennessee River! Twenty-five knots of bulk shear on the western border! Falling off to fifteen as you hit Nashville! Convective available potential energy over one thousand! Poor lapse rates holding back the break! TWENTY-FIVE KNOTS! TWENTY-FIVE KNOTS! TWENTY-FIVE KNOTS! WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS! An upper level troff digs into the Great Lakes! Dragging a weakening cold front through the night! Marginal forcing and the threat is low! We are heavy under the southerly flow! DISRUPT THE RIDGE! WEST OF INTERSTATE SIXTY-FIVE! ONE THOUSAND JOULES PER KILOGRAM! COLLAPSE THE ATMOSPHERE! TWENTY-FIVE KNOTS! TWENTY-FIVE KNOTS! TWENTY-FIVE KNOTS! WATCH FOR GUSTY WINDS! Scattered showers lingering over the Plateau! Marginal forcing! Near zero threat! We burn out in the low nineties!
The forecast discussion
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1206 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026
- Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday late morning into Thursday.
Currently no severe weather expected, but watch for gusty winds.
- Temperatures from Wednesday through the weekend will stay close to seasonal norms.
- Hot and dry next week with highs in the low to mid 90s.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Surface high pressure has slid off to our northeast but it will continue to influence our weather for the early part of Wednesday.
We will start the day out with the lower humidity but unfortunately the humidity will be returning by the afternoon with dew points pushing into the upper 60s to mid 70s.
A short wave will spin around the upper level ridge set up over the Four Corners Region and that will bring the return of southerly flow.
This short wave will also bring scattered thunderstorms late morning into the afternoon mainly to the west of I-65. Bulk shear near the TN River will be 25 knots falling off to around 15 knots as you approach Nashville.
Afternoon CAPE will make it above 1000 j/kg with overall poor lapse rates.
This will keep the severe threat very low but can't rule out gusty winds with any more developed storms near the TN River.
Highs will push into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
An upper level trough digging into the Great Lakes will then push a weakening cold front south Wednesday night into Thursday.
This will bring another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night.
Shear will be under 15 knots and CAPE will be under 500 j/kg with marginal forcing.
This will keep the severe threat near zero.
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon as we remain in a troughing pattern.
Shear will be near 20 knots with around 1000 j/kg but forcing will be marginal at best.
This will keep the severe threat low.
A few showers may linger overnight Thursday over the Plateau, otherwise dry.
LONG TERM
(Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026
Late week into the weekend the strong upper level ridge over the Four Corners Region will start to push east.
This will bring the return of dry weather.
Highs will stay in the upper 80s to lower 90s Friday into the weekend.
The upper level ridge will build east early next week and that will warm highs into the low to mid 90s.
The upper level ridge will linger over the region into the middle part of next week with conditions remaining hot and overall dry.